Trying to understand SBMM - 20 match experiment

@Professor_DoggyI wouldn't call it empirical evidence if the research method is flawed and if someone did manage to figure it out then published the findings it would just lead to it being exploited.

I'll pop back later (when i have more time) and break down a few things as to why this shouldn't be used to back up or refute any claims toward SBMM.

@Professor_Doggy 

Ty =)

I just think its bad for everyone when rumors are spread and taken as fact. Some guy says there are 20+ predators in all their lobbies, some other guy gets killed by the only pred in his lobby and then thinks the first guys claim is a fact and start to hate the "unfair SBMM" =)

@apostolateofDOOM 

I have been Diamond 2,3 or 4 every season up to this one, depending on how much I grind (I dont play that much anymore, and almost never ranked so I guess I am whatever you get reset from D2). I have 2.4 overall K/D but most of my matches earlier seasons are  with premade squads of equally good players. When playing solo with randoms, I think these matches represent my "casual with randoms K/D" pretty well, i.e. 38 kills on 20 matches = 1.9 k/d

And on the question what this experiment actually showed:

Like I said in the summery; I dont want to draw too many conclusions since there were so many other variables affecting those patterns I was looking to find (correlation between performance in previous matches and level of opponent/teammates etc), but all I can say is that it basically felt like pretty much the "same" lobby in all 20 matches. No "super sweaty, all predator-lobbies" that some people claim they always are seeded in etc. 

But I do think one result in this experiment was very consistent over all 20 games:  I was, regardless of individual performance in the previous game,  the big damage dealer in my team. 

I had the highest damage in 15/20 matches. In 7 of those 15 had I more damage then my teammates combined. I think this is some kind of empirical evidence that the teaming of solo randoms isnt 100% random, that its rather skill based to make even teams. Let me also remind you that these were 20 straight games in a row, and randomly or purposely picked matches.

Ps, 

for the sake of "scientific transparency", here are all the match summaries. I think they are in order but not sure.

https://ibb.co/CnDKCvN
https://ibb.co/Z1DYgnX
https://ibb.co/ZzWnBBb
https://ibb.co/SvZ4bwD
https://ibb.co/wsHgHNF
https://ibb.co/1qqc4c4
https://ibb.co/LpzTPk4
https://ibb.co/dG4wbLm
https://ibb.co/SxsqfSx
https://ibb.co/9vYd96K
https://ibb.co/9rDCWxL
https://ibb.co/sqKPWn5
https://ibb.co/Syy8DdW
https://ibb.co/bH2nJRz
https://ibb.co/f8f0qmC
https://ibb.co/xCbhp8b
https://ibb.co/z4CQYYc
https://ibb.co/k8QzMCF
https://ibb.co/k3M1ZsJ
https://ibb.co/xMn2W6Y

@Balladalidila In your reply to @Professor_Doggy that it's just rumours or misinformation that people are playing in lobbies filled with predators but you're the one (intentionally or not) spreading rumours trying to back up your claim with poorly designed research giving misleading conclusions.

I think firstly trying to judge a servers skill base on trails is flawed, especially when that player is seeking diamond or predators. Series 1-2 are the only seasons where you kept your diamond trails and in the results you posted you, on average and pretty consistently, had more than a handful of visible trails at that rank.  If that's just over a third of all diamonds in that match (giving a rough estimate) as Series 3-4 aren't visible, that would roughly be a third to half you're lobby at the same rank as you. You may have the odd predator here and there that have fallen from having bad rounds and others who have been doing reasonably well to fill some of the void but your matches seem to be approximately at your skill level throughout.

You won't be placed in full master/pred lobbies when you're diamond tier and not at that level. Not to criticize you but in the context of the topic at hand.

I do know from people who have smurfed that you can have at least 2 rounds after creating a new account before SBMM puts them in their respected lobbies so i doubt it's dependant on just the previous match but without any clear win streaks or bad rounds consecutively placing 15th with zero kills where you were clearly out matched i'd say it's hard to make a determination from the graph you provided.

SBMM has been discussed pretty extensively and multiple times in general chat. One of the conclusions and also verified by a post from someone at Respawn on twitter is matchmaking will try to balance teams out for solo que players. If you're diamond/master/pred solo queing, it will give you 2 pretty low level/skilled to balance against a gold/platinum pre made for example instead of stacking you with people of equivalent skill so on this you were right. I personally don't like this method because if your skilled and carrying 2 deadweight players then you're basically playing solo and if you're the low level you'll likely get beamed first as they're the most likely to wander from their team leaving them at a disadvantage = Not enjoyable for either but statistically balanced.

They also have this in ranked now which imo is a complete joke to competitive or aspiring professional players alike.

Server location and regional time, que time, SBMM are just some of the things the algorithm will consider when matching teams but also things like accuracy where we can't see the stat will also likely be used so while i applaud your efforts at trying to figure it out, i think the way in which you have tried to calculate it is fundamentally flawed in combination with such a small sample.

I can also vouch that some of my lobbies are up to 80% master/predator trails so i know how gruelling it can be to play like that often. It's mentally draining leaving no room for error and sometimes be tougher than ranked with those willing to try pull off riskier plays and i'm totally sympathetic towards those that want a more casual experience without feeling like their playing scrims in pubs when we have ranked. It's not about wanting to bash noobs but rewarding better players who have invested the time to improve instead of punishing them so lesser skilled players have a better chance and over time more likely to spend more. Why should a silver have the same win rate as i diamond? What's the point in improving if the end result is always the same?

Equal opportunities or equal outcomes and SBMM or EOMM.. I'm sure @Axs5626Sxa5001 can discuss this more with you. 😛 

Next time I log on, I'll add you. My gamer tag is Squid Lemonade.

@apostolateofDOOM 

"...but you're the one (intentionally or not) spreading rumours trying to back up your claim with poorly designed research giving misleading conclusions."

Then we have different meaning of the word "rumors". What I "spread" is the black and white stats of 20 games and my observations during these games. I have images of all the champion squads, all my squads, all the diving trails (you can see on the "player left on ship" approximately when the image was taken). If you want them I can post them as well.   

I never said that "no visible fire or lighting trails means for sure low skill player", did I? I said; "here are the drop trails I saw in 20 games, use this information to draw whatever correlation to the lobbies overall skill level, weak as it may be, as you want" 

I never said "As a player at my level (2.4 k/d), I will be placed with master pred lobbies and since I didnt get placed in these lobbies, they doesnt exist at all". 

I never even said anything about server location or time. I just stated, once again, black and white as a variable in my experiment, that I played on EU, 7pm to 9 pm with randoms. No conclusions even made at that topic.

What I did say that I didnt see much pattern in either competition or teammates, regardless of my performance. What I did say was that I almost in every game out damaged my two teammates combined. Those are NOT rumors, those are, once again BLACK AND WHITE STATS from said 20 games..

"I can also vouch that some of my lobbies are up to 80% master/predator trails so i know how gruelling it can be to play like that often"

If you claim that you have 80% master and predators in your public lobbies, and also say you are at a much higher skill level than me, well then THAT statement doesnt at all contradict what I saw in my experiment. On the contrary; if you better than me, presumably a master or better since Im high diamond, and actually have 80% masters or better in your lobbies, it just validates why I have so few, which was one of my observations, right? 

Here are all the images if you are interested. I think they are in order BUT as you can see on the table in my first post, I sometimes failed to take a screenshot so there are no correlation between the match number and the rows. You just have to use the table and see which matches I failed to take a screenshot in each category =)

My Squad                                 Match Champions                           Dive trails