Re: What are the chances of you getting an heirloom in Apex Legends?

@DarthValtrex .5% and 1%?

I would say the odds are far lower than that.

If they were .5% per pack, after 250 packs you would have a better than 71% of having hit an heirloom.  Clearly, that's not right.  That's the math.

One of the biggest problem with loot box mechanics is people who are putting money into them really don't understand the mathematics and how these things are designed to work.  To get what you really want (most people is heirlooms) is pretty much zero.

I did a long post on the FIFA forms a few years ago during TOTY and how "sTrEaMeRs" and "CoNtEnT cReAtOrS" and "PrOs" did pack openings and got nothing after spending 10K+ in FIFA points.  That's how it's supposed to work.  That's the math.  Sadly, the usual conspiracy theorists came out.  You can always tell who paid attention in science/math class and who was eating the glue :-P

- DR

@RockDokRockwhat math is that?

If your math was applied to a coinflip, than getting heads 4 times means you have 200% chance for tails?

I never knew % chances were stacking each unsuccesful roll.

@damsonwhufndthis Basic high school probability.

Taking the claim at face value.  Each pack has an independent probability of 0.5% or 0.005 of having an heirloom (worst case in the claim of 0.5% to 1%.

The chance of *NOT* getting an heirloom in an individual pack therefore must be 99.5% (.995).

If I have 250 apex packs the probability of not getting an heirloom in any of them is .995^{250}.  This is approx 28.5%

Therefore you have a probability of 71.5% of getting at least 1 heriloom in 250 packs if the individual probability weights for an heirloom (per pack) are 0.5%.

In practice these weights may vary, I get that, but for the sake of example the values suggested clearly aren't right.  They will be *far far* lower.

Yes?

% chances don't "stack".  I have no idea what you are on about.

- DR

@DarthValtrex Yes, i know that.  The math takes that into account.

To show you take coin flipping.  50/50 heads or tails.

Heads, you get an heirloom.  Tails you don't.

One flip is 50/50.  2 outcomes

H or T

Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)

H/H

H/T

T/H

T/T

Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails).  Which is 0.25.  Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).

Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom?  One flip or two?

Exactly the same logic used in my argument before.  That's how probability works.  

That's how probability works over multiple independent events.  This is basic stuff guys.  I am surprised I am having to "show my work".

- DR

I can confirm @DarthValtrex  explanation, the RNG % is per pack with no accumulation.

The only thing that has a drop% increase with each pack opened is crafting metals, as they  replace what would be a duplicate item.

Or legendary items If you count the 30 pack threshold I guess.

@DarthValtrex No, you're making zero sense.

Show me your work - the actual math - to justify your answer.  I've done so twice already and all you are doing is going on about "RNG" and "perfect" flips - neither of which makes any sense.

Its' true computer based RNG is not truly "Random" (well, you can get hardware that does this but I doubt that's the case here) but, for our purposes, the outcome of that is insignificant; the trends should follow pretty closely what I'm claiming.  

Show me.  

@MandatoryIDtag There is no accumulation.   This is how probability works over multiple independent events.

I completely agree that as a single event each one has a 0.5% of working out for you.  My calculations are based on that.

AS I said with the coin flipping.  Do you have a better chance at hitting a Heads over 1 or 2 flips?  It should be self explanatory and, yes, each "flip" has the same chance.  The outcome of the first flip has zero bearing on the second nor does it change it's likely outcome.  If you are unlucky with the first flip then you have a 50/50 chance with your second flip... NOTE that at that point it's a single independent event (not 2).  If you calculate it using 2 independent event (having two flips) you can see the difference.  This in no way "stacks" or "accumulates" results.  It is looking at the probabilities of the set of results over 2 events.  Same what I did with the original 0.5% calculation.  It's sound.

The original claim was it was about a 0.5% per pack of getting an heirloom.  What I have done is shown you how that works down over many packs.  It's that simple.  This is how probability works.  

To put it another way, out of the people who have opened 250 packs with these odds about 71.5% of them would have received at least one heirloom.

- DR

@RockDokRock

"Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75%"

How does that work?

How does chance change? If the probability of the outcome is same?

If I flip 10 times and get head 10 times do I get close to 100% chance of getting tails?

How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?

Does the coin suddenly start creating forcefield gravity towards tails side?

@damsonwhufndthis Do I stutter?  It's not my fault you haven't studied probability.

2 flips.  4 outcomes.  Each chance equally likely (after 2 flips).

HH - 25%

HT - 25%

TH - 25%

TT - 25%

3 of the 4 outcomes (with equal outcomes) have at least one heads.  If we assume the coin is fair then they will each have a equal or probable outcome.  25%.  3 of them have heads.  Therefore 75% OVER TWO FLIPS.  It's really really really simple.

So if you flip a coin twice, in 75% of the cases, you should see at least one heads.  I am not sure how this is a challenging concept.

You said:  "How many times do you have to flip heads to have 100% chance to get tails?"

You don't.  That's ridiculous.  It just shows you literally don't know what you are talking about.

My original post on this topic is just being proven over and over again with this discussion.

Anyway, I'm done.  Believe what you want.  I've shown my work.  Nobody else has shown anything other than arm waving arguments.  

- DR

@RockDokRockwhere does the 75% chance come from again?

In a chance of 50/50, where does 75% chance come from?

@damsonwhufndthis Fully explained above.  Over 2 flips.  I've explained it several times now.  If you can't grasp it I can't help you, sorry.

You are focusing on individual events.  Not a collection of independent events.

- DR

@RockDokRockwhere did you learn this "math"?

@damsonwhufndthis  Thanks for asking.

Actually I've taught this subject before as part of a class.  I hold a PhD in a mathematical discipline and am a University Lecturer.

You?

@RockDokRockoh my bad, I searched little bit online

Can I ask you why you use on a 0,4% chance scenerio, a coinflip formula?

@RockDokRock  without trying to sound rude,I'm not interested in this whole debate lol, just confirming the simplified response for anybody actually reading this and wondering how the system works. ^.^

@damsonwhufndthis I used 0.5% chance as per @DarthValtrex scenario posted originally.  I didn't choose it.  

Truth of the matter is we don't know what the odds are really, they must be much less than that though.

- DR

@MandatoryIDtag Yet, here you are.  I also find it interesting it's me you flag to point this out to and not the ones arguing my point.

Not sure what you expect.  I made a claim I can backup and demonstrate yet people keep arguing and I'm not sure why.

Bottom line is chance is small.  Deal with it, move on but as I stated originally most people have no idea how any of this works and probably think their chances are *far* better than they actually are.  

I see this in FIFA all the time (but FIFA Is more of a P2W structure, that does not exist in Apex).

- DR

@RockDokRockI'm just tryina say that your 71% chance of heirloom after 250 packs sounds way too optimistic, considering no matter how many you open it's still 0.5% chance.

@RockDokRock   I simply responded to you because you used @MandatoryIDtag. x.x

@MandatoryIDtag But it's Mandatory!

Reminds me of a great name I saw playing the other day (well, quite some time ago).  His EA name was "Indecisive Jump Master", lol.

- DR

@RockDokRock  that's pretty funny actually,  I ran across a guy  named "landDIErepeat" surely enough he lived up to his name. 😉

@RockDokRockDId he play mirage? Since Mirage sometimes says: "Maybe we land here, maybe we don't I'm fine with whatever."

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@damsonwhufndthis wrote:

@RockDokRockI'm just tryina say that your 71% chance of heirloom after 250 packs sounds way too optimistic, considering no matter how many you open it's still 0.5% chance.

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It is each time individually.  If you have 250 packs to open though, do you really think it's still 0.5% overall?

This is why the coin flip example is relevant to drive home this point.

Individual coin flips give you a 50/50 heads or tails.  Totally true.

Would you expect to get at least one heads after 10 flips?  Do you think your chance of seeing at least one heads after 10 flips is only 50%?

Can you see the difference?

- DR