Same problem on my two daughters computers. Bought them both 3 years of XBox Gamepass Ultimate to make use of the EA play support. Using XBox app works for Gamepass games fine.
Installed EA Desktop when prompted, made first time EA accounts. Xbox account and EA accounts linked correctly. EA Play account showing in both Apps. Try to install any games and just get 1 second of orange circle and then nothing.
Over the last 6 weeks I have spent days trying to fix this following every possible suggested fix including...
Uninstall/reinstall Xbox app several times
Uninstall/reinstall EA Desktop several times
Run EA Desktop Recovery several times
Download EA Desktop from EA site rather than through XBox app.
Sign out and back in to XBox app
Sign out and back in to EADesktop app
Delete all trace of EA desktop including in the registry and clean with CCleaner
Open EA Desktop with admin
Sign out of EA accounts on EA website
Unlink EA account and relink
Change UAC control in Windows to every level
Tried using a VPN set to USA
Tried changing download destinination in EA Desktop settings
Tried turning off Mawarebytes to see if that helped (it didn't)
This is happening on two PC's but will try on a laptop as well.
Just to state again these are 2 separate Windows 10 PC's, both with Xbox Gamepass Ultimate accounts (working correctly), both with newly created EA accounts (never used for Origin or anything else), both showing as linked EA Play to Xbox in EA profile and Xbox App settings. Both offer the download/install button on games but pressing it gives orange circle and nothing else.
None of the 10 or so hours I have put in to applying any of these suggested fixes has helped in any way. Something on my network? Port based in the router? I'm baffled.