So kind of as expected, no response whatsoever from EA.
Current standings: I have spent 375 "normal" draft tokens on TOTY (and 1 one Ginga, but I'll ignore that).
I am on 4 Pack A players. The odds of this particular outcome as per my simulations would be 1.86%. The absolute minimum would be 3, but I got a pack A on my 275th attempt. The probability of getting 3 or 4 would be 2.00%.
The percentages go down to 0.82% for 4 packs A and 0.87% for 3 or 4 packs A if I assume that when you are guaranteed a pack B or better, the probability of getting pack A is 10%. Above I have assumed the guaranteed pack B or better gives you pack B in 98% of cases. If the game is fair, the probability should be 10%, but it isn't really specified.
The expected number of packs A sits at 8.4 (pack A in 2% of the cases when pack B or better is guaranteed) or 9.3 (pack A in 10% of the cases when pack B or better is guaranteed).
To make matters worse, out of my 4 packs A I got:
- Zico 117 on the 100th try (week 1).
- Rice 116 on the 200th try (week 2, not UTOTY of course back then). CM with 3* skill move and not on max OVR, so I was disappointed.
- Nuño Mendes 117 on the 275th try (week 3, so not UTOTY). Okay-ish, but I really wanted Van Dijk or Gullit, so still disappointed.
- Essien 116 on the 375th try (week 4, Icon draft). Out of all 6 options, definitely my least preferred. I do not play with CDM, and while Essien can play CM it's then still a 3* skill move. Extremely disappointed.
I also spent 1 token on Ginga to get a 112, and 33 tokens on UTOTY drafts with of course 0 packs A.
So this draft system, it feels extremely unfair. I seem to be on the terribly unlucky side (unless the probabilities are incorrect again like with at least one of the boxes as I posted before) which just severely hampers in team building and the badge progression, but also you can no longer pick the players you want!
Yeah sure there is the exchange. But seriously, in the shard system Essien and Rice would have been 2x 180 shards and you'd need 1,000-ish shards for a 117, which means you're over 1/3rd in. In the new system, they give you 2x 50 "26 phase 2" tokens out of the 900 you need, so only 1/9th. And all the lower OVR players either give you just 5 (10 times as little as the 116!) or nothing at all.
This system is honestly a disgrace. I am SO INCREDIBLY FED UP WITH THIS. In the most recent UTOTY live stream, Antwan and Tak claim that they listen to feedback. Well, here's your chance. Listen. Act. Give me some feedback. Give me some reason to stay. Else, I'm out, sorry. All the fun is gone and the game just leaves me more and more frustrated rather than excited.