Introducing Pack Probabilities [MEGA]

"Cornholio;c-1647198" wrote:

"Warp3dM1nd;c-1639893" wrote:
Yet nothing but silence. They will have to be forced to show us. They don't have a choice unless they are trying artificially raise the rates to make it look like they are giving a fair chance but if they are **** enough to do that then they really will be in trouble for fraudulent practices. The report that the group I put together has already been forwarded to Google.

I had my mom type it up since she teaches business and statistics so it's not some half illiterate piece of work. It is documented every step of the way with pictures before and after so nobody (CG/EA) can cry false. It clearly shows the drop percents for shards in Hard Nodes, Cantina, Ship, and even the high value gear on the nodes.

Outside of a few Cantina runs the drop rate was 10% to 15% on 5x run less if toon and ship is on same node. Now with the introduction of 8x that number dropped down to roughly 6%. So yeah they pulled the classic bait and switch. " Oh look guys we increased the amount of node runs!" While laughing behind the scenes that the drop percentages haven't changed so all it did was increase their crystal inflow which equals money.

They appease most of the masses who thinks it's a good thing while the small minority of us realized it just made matters worse without them increasing the actually shard drop percentage.

Could you provide some of the numbers and data you came up with for Cantina? And maybe share your statistics, sample size, and observations so we can understand the quality of the data?

I documented exactly 4001 cantina sims for the probailities of shards and ability mats across all energy costs and graphed their distributions in excel and came up with very consistent drop rates over the course of several months. Cantina shard drop rates across hundreds of sims from 8, 10, 12, and 16 energy cost nodes fell between 29.19-33.39% with an average of 32.32%. I don’t have extended data on hard nodes but I know it is lower than Cantina. I can provide details on ability mat drop rates if people are interested or want to see the hard data. Interesting observation from the data is that 16 energy nodes in Cantina drop purple mats drop at approximately 12x the rate (26.67%) vs. 8 energy nodes (2.23%). Shard drop rates appear to be (and likely are) consistent across all costs, although I would be hesitant to set that in stone as I know my sample size is still too small to model the rng distribution function with complete accuracy.

The Cantina was a mistype it was meant to be hardnode. I assumed you would have figured that out reading further with 5x baseline. Then me talking about the increase from 5 to 8. We haven't tackled the Cantina and high gear piece drop rate yet. But I do know I ran 32 runs on veteran wookie the last 2 days and got 3 shards. Maybe it was a bad RNG day. I can say there has been days where I got as many 7 more often then not it's between 0 and 5. I did Wiggs before the veteran which is a low Cantina tier and out of 16 runs got 0 shards.

Can I ask when you did your study because everybody that kept telling me it was 30% shard drop rate was from months ago. That certainly isn't the case now. I personally believe and alot of others on here and Reddit think they have lowered the percentage chance drop rate across the board for awhile. I can't pin down the exact date by no means but from when I started to now the toon shard drop rate on nodes has went down. It actually seems the ship hard nodes have better shard drop rates but since I have only done bast a few time I can't say for sure.

We took 40 people and could have probably had 60 or more because more came out of the wood work as they heard about it. We broke 20 down into the 5x hard node 3 different node groups. 10 did 10x hard node 3 different node and the other 10 did 15x hard node 3 different hard nodes. Then we took pictures of the Toons of on the HN we had picked for our run. Each person had their choice of a different HN. Then we set a month as our end line. We took pics before and after the run.

I picked DN Sion and Baze and as you can see I have yet to unlock base which is beyond ridiculous. 50 shards should be obtainable within a month doing 5 runs a day and I'm currently sitting at 35 and I had none before starting the study. I purposefully picked him as my 3rd since I hadn't unlocked him so it would be a perfect example.

When the numbers came out surprisingly the 5x node group had higher percentage drop rate 10 to 15 percent.
There is a caveat though if the HN shares a node with a ship it goes down. I probably got triple the KR ship shards than of Sion.

The 10x groups percentages dropped lower and the 15x even lower then that. The numbers we were seeing at the 15x was down right criminal. It wasn't rare for them to do a 15 run and come away with 0 to 3 shards.

I will go back an edit the post to say hardnode since we haven't attempted the the Cantina or the High Gear drops yet. It does read like we did this. Since my mom went the whole nine yards. She teach business and statistics in college she went hog wild with it and it turned into a 40+ page deal with the pics of before and after of the Toons showing the increase or no increase of the shard count. The last thing we wanted was for someone to try and cry false.