Which packs would you recommend for a newbie to this game to get?

@Onverser I think you have the best answer here. It completely depends what kind of play style the individual Simmer has. I like how you've categorised the packs.

I'd personally include Dine Out and Laundry Day into family play too (you can celebrate birthdays at restaurants, and I found that making sure my Sim's children didn't leave for school unhappy due to dirty clothes was quite an important part of my game a few saves ago!).

Possible Get To Work in chaos too (alien abductions and the scientist career).