Cletus dice den is live

anaquarind wrote:

johde68 wrote:
I've been doing fairly well at Cleatus' . For me, it feels better than Moe's slots. I'm still not sure what the best strategy is. If the red dice were legit your best bets would be 5 or 9. But, from my play so far the dice seem far from legit. I've had string of 3 sets in a row of 11-11-5. I'm also getting more 12's 2's and 3's compared to what be normal for a pair of dice.

Most of the time I'm playing 3,11,5, and 9. 5 and 9 because of pure probability, 3 and 11 because of observation. I haven't been playing 2 and 12 much because their automatic winners if they come up on roll 3 because of cheating.

Not understanding how 5 and 9 have the highest probability here. 7 should be the number thown most frequently with 2 purely randomized, standard dice.

I should have been clear. 7 obviously would the highest probability but 5 and 9 has the highest expected value of chips paid out.

In 3 rolls you'll roll a 7 ~ 42% for 110 chips or an EV of 46 chips per games. In 3 rolls you'll roll a 5 ~ 30% of the time but win 200 chips or an EV of 59 chips per game. To see the entire table.

win% Chips EV
2 8% 400 32.42
3 16% 300 47.27
4 23% 235 53.99
5 30% 200 59.53
6 36% 150 54.22
7 42% 110 46.34
8 36% 150 54.22
9 30% 200 59.53
10 23% 235 53.99
11 16% 300 47.27
12 8% 400 32.42

This is all assuming normal dice which I highly doubt and doesn't factor in "cheating"

johde68 wrote:

anaquarind wrote:

johde68 wrote:
I've been doing fairly well at Cleatus' . For me, it feels better than Moe's slots. I'm still not sure what the best strategy is. If the red dice were legit your best bets would be 5 or 9. But, from my play so far the dice seem far from legit. I've had string of 3 sets in a row of 11-11-5. I'm also getting more 12's 2's and 3's compared to what be normal for a pair of dice.

Most of the time I'm playing 3,11,5, and 9. 5 and 9 because of pure probability, 3 and 11 because of observation. I haven't been playing 2 and 12 much because their automatic winners if they come up on roll 3 because of cheating.

Not understanding how 5 and 9 have the highest probability here. 7 should be the number thown most frequently with 2 purely randomized, standard dice.

I should have been clear. 7 obviously would the highest probability but 5 and 9 has the highest expected value of chips paid out.

In 3 rolls you'll roll a 7 ~ 42% for 110 chips or an EV of 46 chips per games. In 3 rolls you'll roll a 5 ~ 30% of the time but win 200 chips or an EV of 59 chips per game. To see the entire table.

win% Chips EV
2 8% 400 32.42
3 16% 300 47.27
4 23% 235 53.99
5 30% 200 59.53
6 36% 150 54.22
7 42% 110 46.34
8 36% 150 54.22
9 30% 200 59.53
10 23% 235 53.99
11 16% 300 47.27
12 8% 400 32.42

This is all assuming normal dice which I highly doubt and doesn't factor in "cheating"

Thanks - now I understand. Didn't actually realize we got odds depending on what we bet.

anaquarind wrote:

johde68 wrote:

anaquarind wrote:

johde68 wrote:
I've been doing fairly well at Cleatus' . For me, it feels better than Moe's slots. I'm still not sure what the best strategy is. If the red dice were legit your best bets would be 5 or 9. But, from my play so far the dice seem far from legit. I've had string of 3 sets in a row of 11-11-5. I'm also getting more 12's 2's and 3's compared to what be normal for a pair of dice.

Most of the time I'm playing 3,11,5, and 9. 5 and 9 because of pure probability, 3 and 11 because of observation. I haven't been playing 2 and 12 much because their automatic winners if they come up on roll 3 because of cheating.

Not understanding how 5 and 9 have the highest probability here. 7 should be the number thown most frequently with 2 purely randomized, standard dice.

I should have been clear. 7 obviously would the highest probability but 5 and 9 has the highest expected value of chips paid out.

In 3 rolls you'll roll a 7 ~ 42% for 110 chips or an EV of 46 chips per games. In 3 rolls you'll roll a 5 ~ 30% of the time but win 200 chips or an EV of 59 chips per game. To see the entire table.

win% Chips EV
2 8% 400 32.42
3 16% 300 47.27
4 23% 235 53.99
5 30% 200 59.53
6 36% 150 54.22
7 42% 110 46.34
8 36% 150 54.22
9 30% 200 59.53
10 23% 235 53.99
11 16% 300 47.27
12 8% 400 32.42

This is all assuming normal dice which I highly doubt and doesn't factor in "cheating"

Thanks - now I understand. Didn't actually realize we got odds depending on what we bet.

Right now, we don't know for sure what "odds" EA is using. The odds I gave would be if you played the game if real life if real dice. If you roll 2 dice there is only 1 way to roll a 2. You get a 1 on each dice. In contrast there are 6 ways to roll a 7.

johde68 wrote:


Right now, we don't know for sure what "odds" EA is using. The odds I gave would be if you played the game if real life if real dice. If you roll 2 dice there is only 1 way to roll a 2. You get a 1 on each dice. In contrast there are 6 ways to roll a 7.

Agreed - in the absence of the actual programmed odds, or a large sample size, we're just making assumptions.

LPNintendoITA wrote:
Send freddy quimby to britannia

What am I missing here, I don't have this as a task for Fred? Would love to see this building light up, do any other characters have tasks here?