Congrats! I think I got my first non-crap prize on my twelfth box, but it seems to be different for everyone. I've seen several forums break down the odds according to the files, but they seem to be wonky when some people have to receive endless boxes of crap to get one kinda decent prize, and other people are claiming to have gotten the ultra-rares on their first box. My advice is, don't eggspect (See what I did there?) anything, and just roll with the punches as best as possible. :D