939 bonuts choices.... is it random?

jellypawn

i'm not convinced it's random, and feel I get 3 donuts a LOT less than 1/3 of the time, and go through runs of several "doh, only one".

anyone else got any feels about this? has it been discussed before? it's probably me seeing patterns in randomness, but damn, it really feels like it's out to get me!

meinaz

Overall I think it is random although I can find patterns at a time. Once I feel like there is a pattern then it gets switched up. I go through stretches where I don't have to spend any money to get three donuts and other times it is always in the last one that I choose.

KrustyBrand

It’s been discussed. The general consensus is that it’s random.

Castiel19x

Its pretty much just random.

ldavidgr68

There are some days when wherever I hit, I get 3 donuts. There are some months when wherever I hit,k I get 1 donut.

girl22721

I expect someone will be along to say that it's confirmation bias, however having opened many thousands of boxes, I'd say that anecdotally winning 1 donut does feel like it's more common than 3 donuts. I likewise notice a lot of streaks with 4-6 times in a row when I only win 1 donut, whereas similar streaks of 3 donuts do not feel so common...

surefirein93

Yup....I went along for about a month and thought I had the selection process nailed down. I rarely got a one or two on my first choice but then BOOOM, babee, BOOOM - that all changed. Now it seems much more random and thus more expensive to get the full boat each time. It's worth it, though, once you get your cash on hand above 3 mil so you don't have to worry about spending extra bucks to get 3 each time.

KrustyBrand

This issue (and issues like it) have been a never-ending source of debate on the forum. In response to a previous thread, I recall posting results from a data set that used a sample size of around 500, showing that the underlying process was random. I doubt I changed the mind of a single person who was otherwise convinced that there was some pattern involved.

rw228

I've been experimenting with this recently, doing far more work than I should, and it seems totally random.
Awhile ago I think you could go off what donut count was in the center then pick three off that but that has changed some time ago.

spyder1952850

KrustyBrand wrote: »

This issue (and issues like it) have been a never-ending source of debate on the forum. In response to a previous thread, I recall posting results from a data set that used a sample size of around 500, showing that the underlying process was random. I doubt I changed the mind of a single person who was otherwise convinced that there was some pattern involved.

You convinced me, I had a similar set up and ran it. Had a friend who tried to set up an algorithm, said there were too many variables.

168sean168

I did a 100 times bonus level up play and accept the first box I chose. Results appeared to be random

4kidsandacatdog

Do you all go for the second and third tries? Is it worth the IGC?

94nt3nb31n

4kidsandacatdog wrote: »

Do you all go for the second and third tries? Is it worth the IGC?

if i go for three i loose money on a daily basis. if i take it as it comes i slowly gain money and still get enough donuts to buy all i want (666+150)% 64 kems.

KrustyBrand

4kidsandacatdog wrote: »

Do you all go for the second and third tries? Is it worth the IGC?

For me this has always been a no-brainer — I always spend my in-game cash until I select the three-donut option. But I’ll also admit that there may be no straightforward answer to the question because it relies on a number of difficult-to-quantify variables such as (a) how much does the user subjectively value his or her in-game cash, and (b) how much much does the user subjectively value his or her time.

meinaz

I always go for three donuts. I don't really notice that it impacts my IGC unless I am going through a really unlucky spurt.

wiedmannaj

4kidsandacatdog wrote: »

Do you all go for the second and third tries? Is it worth the IGC?

I always do. I will gladly exchange cash for donuts anytime.

umnikke8

I've put it through spreadsheet calculations to determine my current optimum is to accept 2 donuts or more. It depends on many factors what is best for everyone though.

st3phen527

One of the members here made a handy calculator for KEM farming and just for fixed-price farming: SimKEM.

ramrod130

If I get one at first I will go for 3, but if I get 2 at first I will stop at 2

sjsebayacc131

I think it's random. Here are my last 16 attempts. The tries with ?'s mean I got 3 the first time.

231
??3
??3
132
321
132
231
??3
312
??3
132
231
312
??3
231
321



@st3phen527 Thanks for that link! And thanks to the person that made it.

meinaz

@sjsebayacc131 Do you always start with the first box on the right? I usually do the opposite and start on the left although when I feel like I know the "pattern" I will start other places.