What are the Odds?
231 posts
Yea, Buddha will only give you premium items where the Mystery Box can give you both premium & non-premium stuff.
But you can also get a Mystery Box from a Buddha.
So buyer beware
But you can also get a Mystery Box from a Buddha.
So buyer beware
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Howdy, Stranger!
Replies
I'm specifically asking about donuts. Donuts are not premium items.
<Consumable id="8" name="PrizeBox" type="Box" icon="Menu_Premium_MysteryBox" rewardText="UI_BoxReward">
<Sell allowed="false"/>
<Cost donuts="6"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.10983">
<Item type="consumable" name="PrizeBox"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.20983">
<Item type="building" name="LemonTree"/>
<Reward money="250" donuts="0" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.30983">
<Item type="building" name="ParkingLot"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.40983">
<Item type="building" name="WoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="WoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="WoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="WoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="WoodenFence"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.50983">
<Item type="building" name="Tree02"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.60983">
<Item type="building" name="LargeHedge"/>
<Item type="building" name="LargeHedge"/>
<Item type="building" name="LargeHedge"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.70983">
<Item type="building" name="NewspaperDispenser"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.74983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.78983">
<Item type="building" name="Gazebo"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.82983">
<Item type="building" name="BushSculpture"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="500" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.86983">
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.90983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialBench"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="1000" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.94983">
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="10" xp="0" chance="0.96983" firstTimePrize="true">
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.98983">
<Item type="character" name="SqueakyVoiceTeen"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="30" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.99983">
<Item type="consumable" name="PlatinumPrizeBox"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="2500" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.99993">
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="30" xp="0" chance="0.99997">
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.99999">
<Item type="building" name="SpringfieldTireyard"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="40" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="1">
<Item type="building" name="LardLadsDonuts"/>
</Reward>
</Consumable>
<Consumable id="9" name="PlatinumPrizeBox" type="Box" icon="Menu_Premium_HomerBuddha" rewardText="UI_BoxReward_Buddha">
<Sell allowed="false"/>
<Cost donuts="15"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.09983">
<Item type="consumable" name="PrizeBox"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.19983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialBench"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.29983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialPlanter"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.39983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialDumpster"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.49983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
<Item type="building" name="SpecialWoodenFence"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.59983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialFireShrub"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.69983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialOrangeTree"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.79983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialAppleTree"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.89983">
<Item type="building" name="SpecialPlayTree"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.93983">
<Item type="character" name="SqueakyVoiceTeen"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="30" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.97983">
<Item type="character" name="HansMoleman"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="60" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.98983">
<Item type="building" name="FrinksLab"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="150" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="30" xp="0" chance="0.99983">
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.99993">
<Item type="building" name="SpringfieldTireyard"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="40" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.99997">
<Item type="building" name="SpringfieldSign"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="170" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="0.99999">
<Item type="building" name="DuffBrewery"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="190" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
<Reward money="0" donuts="0" xp="0" chance="1">
<Item type="building" name="VolcanoLair"/>
<Reward money="0" donuts="200" xp="0"/>
</Reward>
</Consumable>
So how are we to interpret these numbers? They clearly mean something, but they're not odds and they're not probabilities.
The chances of the items in a box are related to each other. When determining which item is picked within a box, a number between 0 and 1 is generated.
This number is compared to the chances of the items in order, and takes the first one with a chance greater or equal to the number generated.
If no items have a greater value, no item is obtained.
Example:
Items with chances: 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.65
Value rolled: 0.46
Compare with first: 0.2 < 0.46, fails.
Compare with second: 0.4 < 0.46, fails
Compare with third: 0.5 >= 0.46, passes <- this item is awarded, stop here.
If a number greater than 0.65 was rolled, no item would be awarded.
So I would suppose that it rolls a random 5 digit number between 0 and 1 and elects the first number that is greater or equal to as the prize. Therefore this isn't much help as you'd need the odds of rolling each number and I don't know if they are weighted or not
Edit: ^^^ as you can see I'm an idiot
The weighting comes with how close together the numbers are, toward the end of the list with all the premiums the numbers are closer together, so less chance of those items being picked
Thus, there is a 0.001% chance of getting lard lad on a misery box :evil:
Exactly. I don't know for sure, of course, but I would guess the random number generator uses a simple uniform distribution.
Great posts by both tallen and sam.
I want to know (assuming all premiums are already acquired) are the odds to receive donuts better when buying a Buddah or a Mystery Box?
Actually, if I'm not mistaken, all of the information necessary to calculate the desired odds is available in the aforementioned tables provided by tallen. Gettin' ready for bed at the moment or I'd put pencil to paper and give you an answer now.