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Bad Luck or Bad Numbers?

So, I've read a couple of TSTO sites that list the various items in the game and how they work. I'm particularly interested in the Launch Pad, excavation site, and insanity cauldron. And, more specifically, the chances of getting bonus % items from them.

I've been playing the game for three years now and I don't think the posted odds are correct. For example, the web sites say that there is a 1% chance of getting a Mini-Nuke from the Launch Pad. Well, looking at my inventory, I've gotten 112 each of the five kinds of debris plus 110 Ant signs. There is a 25% of getting any item at all. That means that I've fired the rocket over 2400 times. The website says that I should get a Nuke 1% of the time that I get a prize. That should be six. So far, I've gotten one. I should have gotten 18 Topiaries and I've only gotten four. Is that bad luck or are the website numbers off?

Ditto for the excavation site. I've got 75 rocks, barrels, and walls, meaning I've played it 450+ times. I should have gotten a Barbarian Statue 4 times by now. But, I haven't gotten any.

It's harder to figure the Cauldron, but I've played it once or twice a day for a year and a half now and never gotten an Elder God.

Is this just horribly bad luck or is the website off or is the game cheating?

Replies

  • I believe it is completely random. I've been luckier on the rocket than any of the other mini games.
    Be a part of another EA endorsed TSTO fan site at www.tapped-out.co.uk :)
  • I just got another inflatable elder god the other day, so it's not broken!
    Have you gone through your inventory lately? Maybe you got one and didn't realize it in your frenzied tapping.
  • Muhsterino
    4499 posts Member
    edited November 2017
    I would say you have bad luck. Not every player will have average luck, the figures are based on information found in the game files.
    Note about the excavation site prizes - in the update on 1st August 2017, the statue was removed from the prizes. (Players had not been awarded a second or more statues, so EA decided to remove it completely).
    https://forums.ea.com/en/the-simpsons-tapped-out/discussion/97531/mini-games-with-random-awards/p1
    Post edited by Muhsterino on
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  • If you nuke your town you might have better luck after that. :)
    TOUK is the best also have you considered Nuking. Don't forget about the Springfield Showcase
  • Ah. So, at least for the excavation site, the websites are wrong. Apparently I can never get a statue from it. Oh well, looks like it gets tossed into inventory since I don't need any of the decorations and the money and XP doesn't seem to be multiplied by my bonus meter or the collider.

    And I do check my inventory every couple of weeks for overlooked and new items. Nada.
  • rw228
    1057 posts Member
    I’ve never received a nuke from the launch pad and I try and run it constantly. I wouldn’t think it was a real prize if people here hadn’t attested to receiving one from it.
  • Random is, well, random. When flipping a coin you have a 1 in 2 (or 50%) chance of getting 'heads'. Lets say you flip it 3 times and get tails all three times. On the 4th flip you still have only a 50% chance of getting heads. Also, @Muhsterino don't confuse odds with chance of winning, they are 2 different things.
    I got the rocket recently in from Classic Mini Games in both my towns and already got a mini nuke from one of them (lucky me!)
    Whoa, whoa, whoa – I only accept cash, bitcoin, or GameStop stock.
  • No nuke for me at all, but there again I only got it last time it was released.
    Never seen so much debris though since I got it.
    iPad Pro 9.7, iPhone XR (Red product)
  • Random is, well, random. When flipping a coin you have a 1 in 2 (or 50%) chance of getting 'heads'. Lets say you flip it 3 times and get tails all three times. On the 4th flip you still have only a 50% chance of getting heads. Also, @Muhsterino don't confuse odds with chance of winning, they are 2 different things.
    I got the rocket recently in from Classic Mini Games in both my towns and already got a mini nuke from one of them (lucky me!)
    Thanks for the correction, I have edited my post.
    Answers HQ Hero HELP THREADS
  • Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but OP, I believe you get multiple debris every time you get debris from the rocket. It's a 12 hour task so if you had launched it 2400 times that's 1200 days of launching twice which is over 3 years. It only came out in January '16.

    So realistically if you launch the rocket 1.5 times a day every day since it came out, you'd have launched let's say 650 - 700 times. Considering the 75% failure rate, that would be about 170 ish successful, and 1 to 2 nukes.
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