I've not been counting, but I think I may have missed one along the way a couple of months ago. I'll start counting now. Though I think I said that the last time I got donuts too.

Congrats although these never stopped it's a 1% chance of finding it.

however the 5 from 300 games played is still up in the air

I won 5 donuts not too long after getting Sideshow You. Nothing since. And I know I'm way past 300. So either it's not true, or I'm about to hit a lucky streak. lol

I feel like there's a lot of ambiguity with these.
I've heard from different people:

You're guaranteed donuts after every 300 rounds
You were only guaranteed donuts after the first 300 rounds
You have a 1/300 chance to get the donuts (a .33% chance)
No one has clarified if that's per balloon or per visit
No one has clarified if these probabilities are just the probability that the donuts can appear in one of the balloons we pop (ie. if the actual odds of getting donuts are 1/300 *1/6 or however many balloons there are)

Not that I don't believe the people saying they haven't gotten any donuts after x amount of time, but there's a lot of subjectivity. I also definitely won't believe anyone that just bluntly answers these questions without showing some proof. Pretty much, I'm looking for someone who actually looks at the game files to give some insight and stop the rumors.

I feel like there's a lot of ambiguity with these.
I've heard from different people:

You're guaranteed donuts after every 300 rounds
You were only guaranteed donuts after the first 300 rounds
You have a 1/300 chance to get the donuts (a .33% chance)
No one has clarified if that's per balloon or per visit
No one has clarified if these probabilities are just the probability that the donuts can appear in one of the balloons we pop (ie. if the actual odds of getting donuts are 1/300 *1/6 or however many balloons there are)

Not that I don't believe the people saying they haven't gotten any donuts after x amount of time, but there's a lot of subjectivity. I also definitely won't believe anyone that just bluntly answers these questions without showing some proof. Pretty much, I'm looking for someone who actually looks at the game files to give some insight and stop the rumors.

My take is: you are guaranteed 5 donuts with every 300th balloon you pop (this is my stated opinion), which is every 100th game you play, which happens to be 1 in 100 games you win 5 donuts, which happens to be 1%, which happens to be the percentage that everyone quotes.

Is there an additional probability that you win donuts at random, outside of the guaranteed once-every-300-pops donuts? Maybe. I've not seen any evidence of this.

More likely, people have seen the 1% figure and immediately jumped to the conclusion that it's a probability that you'll win donuts, when in fact it isn't. P(Win donuts on games 1-99) = 0. P(Win donuts on game 100) = 1.

I pop at least twice a day and the last 5 donuts I received was November 2014

haha so the last time you got donuts was 7 months in the future, but on a serious note assuming this 300 balloon theory was true and you play everyday twice a day for 100 games thats 50 days, who knows maybe it has to be 50 consecutive days or maybe you either get the 5 donuts or 75 tickets, no, that doesnt sound right whatever the case

## Replies

however the 5 from 300 games played is still up in the air

Every 300 balloons like clockwork I get 5 donuts

I won 5 donuts not too long after getting Sideshow You. Nothing since. And I know I'm way past 300. So either it's not true, or I'm about to hit a lucky streak. lol

I've heard from different people:

You're guaranteed donuts after every 300 rounds

You were only guaranteed donuts after the first 300 rounds

You have a 1/300 chance to get the donuts (a .33% chance)

No one has clarified if that's per balloon or per visit

No one has clarified if these probabilities are just the probability that the donuts can appear in one of the balloons we pop (ie. if the actual odds of getting donuts are 1/300 *1/6 or however many balloons there are)

Not that I don't believe the people saying they haven't gotten any donuts after x amount of time, but there's a lot of subjectivity. I also definitely won't believe anyone that just bluntly answers these questions without showing some proof. Pretty much, I'm looking for someone who actually looks at the game files to give some insight and stop the rumors.

My take is: you are guaranteed 5 donuts with every 300th balloon you pop (this is my stated opinion), which is every 100th game you play, which happens to be 1 in 100 games you win 5 donuts, which happens to be 1%, which happens to be the percentage that everyone quotes.

Is there an additional probability that you win donuts at random, outside of the guaranteed once-every-300-pops donuts? Maybe. I've not seen any evidence of this.

More likely, people have seen the 1% figure and immediately jumped to the conclusion that it's a probability that you'll win donuts, when in fact it isn't. P(Win donuts on games 1-99) = 0. P(Win donuts on game 100) = 1.

If you're stated opinion were true, I would have won donuts three times between November and now, instead of once.

That is a myth. I pop twice a day and it as been from september that i've seen donuts...

same here

haha so the last time you got donuts was 7 months in the future, but on a serious note assuming this 300 balloon theory was true and you play everyday twice a day for 100 games thats 50 days, who knows maybe it has to be 50 consecutive days or maybe you either get the 5 donuts or 75 tickets, no, that doesnt sound right whatever the case

donuts will forever be an enigma