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Chances next update includes land

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I like people with a positive outlook, because I certainly don't have one - generally speaking. And I say giving new land a 75% chance is very positive indeed.

I look at it this way - there's been what? 58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication. Because EA has only added land once, it makes it difficult to guess what kind of timeline is reasonable to expect another new land drop.

Thusly, I voted zero percent.

Replies

  • mikeydluffy
    2014 posts
    edited August 2014
    25%. Thought I'd be optimistic :lol:
  • mwdalton
    11545 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    amcevil wrote:
    I like people with a positive outlook, because I certainly don't have one - generally speaking. And I say giving new land a 75% chance is very positive indeed.

    I look at it this way - there's been what? 58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication. Because EA has only added land once, it makes it difficult to guess what kind of timeline is reasonable to expect another new land drop.

    Thusly, I voted zero percent.

    Saying that there's a 0% chance is just as silly as saying there's a 100% chance. I voted 50%, it could go either way.
  • teo47
    944 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    I voted for zero...while the chance obviously isn't exactly zero, I'd say it's closer to that than to 25%.
    New neighbors always welcome!
  • neuroheart
    8132 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    mwdalton wrote:
    amcevil wrote:
    58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication.
    ...
    Thusly, I voted zero percent.

    Saying that there's a 0% chance is just as silly as saying there's a 100% chance. I voted 50%, it could go either way.
    Well, 1 out of 58 would give it a 0.017% chance, which is close enough to zero to make no difference. (Neglecterino or some other math guy can correct me if I'm wrong.)
  • teo47
    944 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    mwdalton wrote:
    amcevil wrote:
    58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication.
    ...
    Thusly, I voted zero percent.

    Saying that there's a 0% chance is just as silly as saying there's a 100% chance. I voted 50%, it could go either way.
    Well, 1 out of 58 would give it a 0.017% chance, which is close enough to zero to make no difference. (Neglecterino or some other math guy can correct me if I'm wrong.)

    1.7%, not 0.017% which is 1 in 5800!
    New neighbors always welcome!
  • mwdalton
    11545 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    Even a 1% chance is closer to a 25% chance than a 0% chance is, in terms of the event actually happening.

    Source: Probability.
  • dhlennon
    133 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    You have ignored the possibility there will be LESS land! :D
  • NOVA_POLARI
    1010 posts
    edited August 2014
    I voted 25% chance because technically there is a chance for anything to happen no matter how unlikely.
  • amcevil
    350 posts
    edited August 2014
    mwdalton wrote:
    Even a 1% chance is closer to a 25% chance than a 0% chance is, in terms of the event actually happening.

    Source: Probability.

    There was no option between 0 and 25, so I took the lower one. I don't think that's silly.
  • NeoSEC28
    39609 posts
    edited August 2014
    As much as i would love some extra land i find highly unlikely we will get any on the next update :( But guess we can all hope
    Volunteer EA Senior Moderator
  • Dotcom180
    601 posts
    edited August 2014
    No one needs land anymore, especially after they shrunken the Helter Shelter!
  • mwdalton
    11545 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    amcevil wrote:
    mwdalton wrote:
    Even a 1% chance is closer to a 25% chance than a 0% chance is, in terms of the event actually happening.

    Source: Probability.

    There was no option between 0 and 25, so I took the lower one. I don't think that's silly.

    0% in this context means 'impossible'. Which, with the lack of foreknowledge we have on future content updates, is just as silly as saying there is a 100% chance, (or that it's certain).
  • NeoSEC28
    39609 posts
    edited August 2014
    Dotcom180 wrote:
    No one needs land anymore, especially after they shrunken the Helter Shelter!

    If land is available then i want it :P The more land we have the more we can design better :)
    Volunteer EA Senior Moderator
  • NeoSEC28
    39609 posts
    edited August 2014
    mwdalton wrote:
    amcevil wrote:
    mwdalton wrote:
    Even a 1% chance is closer to a 25% chance than a 0% chance is, in terms of the event actually happening.

    Source: Probability.

    There was no option between 0 and 25, so I took the lower one. I don't think that's silly.

    0% in this context means 'impossible'. Which, with the lack of foreknowledge we have on future content updates, is just as silly as saying there is a 100% chance, (or that it's certain).

    I voted 0% :P as i dont believe we will get land on the next update, but generally when i say something wont happen it normally does so i', playing the odds in hope we will actually get some land ;)
    Volunteer EA Senior Moderator
  • LPNintendoITA
    11645 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    2 strips were found in the files two updates ago
    My Youtube and Twitch / WikiSimpons Current Event Page and Discord
  • NeoSEC28
    39609 posts
    edited August 2014
    2 strips were found in the files two updates ago

    Very true, but that does mean it will be added with the next update or will it? ;) or will they keep us waiting for another year :lol:

    I know you dont know the answer was just saying :P
    Volunteer EA Senior Moderator
  • kevfd
    377 posts
    edited August 2014
    amcevil wrote:
    I like people with a positive outlook, because I certainly don't have one - generally speaking. And I say giving new land a 75% chance is very positive indeed.

    I look at it this way - there's been what? 58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication. Because EA has only added land once, it makes it difficult to guess what kind of timeline is reasonable to expect another new land drop.

    Thusly, I voted zero percent.

    EA have implied they will be releasing more land some time this year...
  • boldbhoy
    274 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    I think if we have land it is unlikely to be in the main Springfield. There are still way too many people complaining of instability and extra land can only make matters worse. EA won't want to risk making their reputation worse. I can see further Squidport and Krustyland development being more likely.
  • XsizterX
    232 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    yeah but we had an krustyland update already
  • ZennGlenn
    1765 posts Member
    edited August 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    mwdalton wrote:
    amcevil wrote:
    58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication.
    ...
    Thusly, I voted zero percent.

    Saying that there's a 0% chance is just as silly as saying there's a 100% chance. I voted 50%, it could go either way.
    Well, 1 out of 58 would give it a 0.017% chance, which is close enough to zero to make no difference. (Neglecterino or some other math guy can correct me if I'm wrong.)

    2014-08-12-04-52-10-1436304786_zpsea7482e2.jpeg

    Well, maybe 25% :roll:
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