Let's make this fun again! I'm in
... the odds of winning donuts if you use 100 ammo are: 63.4 %.
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And moreover, even if I have collected something like 50 bags to open today with the ray gun inside, I have not found any donuts there, while I can read of people finding donuts in the bags.. Why this game hate me?
C'mon 30 donuts! I need you!
I rarely get any missiles though, so perhaps that is why... mmm....
ETA: Actually got 3 today...amazing...but ended up with candy bars, ray guns, and a "bronze" (paper) bag. Glad to have the candy though.
Basically for large N tries, the probability of something NOT happening is 1/e (where e = 2.71828 ). The way to calculate the odds of NOT winning for this particular example of spending 100 ammo ... 0.99^100 = 36.6 %.
So I a lot of us are going to remain in this club, given how slowly ammo is awarded.
Incidentally you can use this method to calculate a lot of things. The odds of winning donuts from tapping on neighbors, for example.
Surprisingly this has made me even though I've got a ray gun, used about 110 ammo and still in this club :roll:
well, as of today I should have used something like 50 ammo (I have the raygun, that provide 2/3 ammo per day), and i'm still in the club... I hope that proceeding with the event and closing to 100 ammo I will find the donuts, but as you know, even with 99.9% odds to win, you could always loose... ;-)
(I'm also only getting one gold bag a day, if I'm lucky. And I lost connection to the server when I got Moog, so those 10 donuts disappeared. *sigh*)