Increased odds for donuts?

FlattedFifth

I feel the drop rate has improved a little too. It was a rare day to get more than 2 donuts, now it seems unusual to get less than 2. This morning I got 4, but 5 and 6 drops have also happened a couple of times recently.

I spent 30 donuts on the News Channel satellite dish 2 weeks ago and have recouped that already.

devilhunt1449

I've been getting an average of 2 donuts when visiting my friends for some time with the occasional 3 donuts but I'm not at the maximum amount of neighbours so could be loosing out on some I suppose.

elbyron3346

Chance of winning a donut from tapping a friend's buildings (when you have all friendship prizes) is still set to 1%. That doesn't mean every 100 buildings will get you one donut... if you think that then your understanding of probabilities is somewhat lacking. In fact, the chance that 100 buildings will result in exactly 1 donut is 36.6%. Chance of getting exactly 2 donuts from 100 tries is 18.5%, and you even have a 8% chance of 3 or more donuts.

For those who have 100 friends, and thus get 300 tries every day, your odds are:
no donuts - 5%
1 donut - 15%
2 donuts - 22%
3 donuts - 23%
4 donuts - 17%
5 donuts - 10%
6 donuts - 5%
7 or more - 3%

So, while some people may think the drop rates change, they're just getting luckier than usual. It's still (and has always been) set to 1% chance in the game files.

bradyc79

elbyron3346 wrote:

Chance of winning a donut from tapping a friend's buildings (when you have all friendship prizes) is still set to 1%. That doesn't mean every 100 buildings will get you one donut... if you think that then your understanding of probabilities is somewhat lacking. In fact, the chance that 100 buildings will result in exactly 1 donut is 36.6%. Chance of getting exactly 2 donuts from 100 tries is 18.5%, and you even have a 8% chance of 3 or more donuts.

For those who have 100 friends, and thus get 300 tries every day, your odds are:
no donuts - 5%
1 donut - 15%
2 donuts - 22%
3 donuts - 23%
4 donuts - 17%
5 donuts - 10%
6 donuts - 5%
7 or more - 3%

So, while some people may think the drop rates change, they're just getting luckier than usual. It's still (and has always been) set to 1% chance in the game files.

I do like you break down and appreciate it!

I'm not sure where, but I thought I read the odds were like 1 in 200 actions. So if you have 100 friends, 300 actions, you have decent odds of winning a donut or two every time. But I probably read this on the message boards and not sure if it was actually from the game files or not.

velinadelinis

I go through good stages and bad stages. Last 2 days I have had 0 :evil: 2 weeks ago I got 4 in one day. It always accumulates well though