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939ers: Try Clicking the Center Box FIRST For a Better Payoff in Prize Box Bonuts.

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I reached level 939 a week ago and have been KEM farming the whole time since then. Being short of game cash, I avoided spending extra $ on a second or third choice from the prize boxes to get extra bonuts. Then I tried just clicking on the center box ONLY and guess what? You will almost always get 2 or 3 bonuts and only rarely get 1. If I happen to get 1 only, I then spend the $ to buy another box with a guarantee of 2 or 3 from that choice. It seems to pay off far better than randomly choosing the left or right prize boxes first. I'm sure this no great revelation to long-time 939ers but I thought it might help those new to the lofty heights of TSTO's maximum level.
Level 939 (and holding)
Yes, I'm a real fantasy author!

Replies

  • For me its left and right where I get 2 or 3 donuts and 1 in the middle so most likely that is random for everyone.
    TOUK is the best also have you considered Nuking. Don't forget about the Springfield Showcase
  • I think this is mostly superstition and luck. When I hit 939, my strategy was always box 3 first, and then box 2 if I got 2 donuts or box 1 otherwise. This worked almost perfectly for well over a week. I was considering posting like you, and then it just stopped, and I was getting 1 donut non stop!

    I think the game is pretty well randomized here and we've likely all tried out various tactics.

    The odds of getting 1 donut on the first box you click is 1/3 and every strategy I've tried, in the long run, works out to this.

    Thanks for sharing in any case. If you are right or your strategy keeps giving you a better average, awesome! ... I'm permanently stuck on box 3 first thanks to my early experience.
  • The thing about random is it's random. There is no pattern, there is no best way to win. Carefully kept track of the three donut box for three weeks.
    It came out: 31.666 box left, 34.333 center box, 34.0009 right box.
    Same with the boxes from Maggie.
    Same with the dog track.
    Same with the go-kart track.
  • it's luck, plain and simple. there's no pattern i've found, and i've been doing for a LONG time.
    First Year 2012 Player @ Game Level 939 & 3,200% XP
  • alapalme wrote: »
    I think this is mostly superstition and luck.

    ^^Yes, this.

    This is sometimes referred to in the literature as the clustering illusion — the tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs, streaks, or clusters in large samples of random data.
  • This has been brought up many times before, and the consensus is that there is no pattern, unlike those fake casino games during the casino event, which were designed and hard coded to let you win event currency.
  • sflowers330
    644 posts Member
    edited January 2017
    No pattern for sure, but the logic driving the distribution is certainly flawed. I've tracked nearly 300 bonus boxes thus far, and the distribution is definitely not uniform.
  • Its random which box has the three donuts in them
    We'll chew this planet up and spit it out!
  • No pattern for sure, but the logic driving the distribution is certainly flawed. I've tracked nearly 300 bonus boxes thus far, and the distribution is definitely not uniform.

    It doesn't matter if it is uniform or not. What matters is that is random. With 300 you should have get roughly 100 each. But if you have 95+95+110 that doesn't mean that it is not random, just that you're sample was probably too small.
  • I tend to find if I choose a box and it has 3, quite often I pick the same box 3 times in a row it has 3, then I switch to another box.

    Another thing I noticed is if I get 1 on the first try, I go 2 boxes to the right and about 4/5 times that will have 3.

    Choose box 1, 1 donut, open box 3.
    Choose box 2, 1 donut, open box 1.
    Choose box 3, 1 donut, open box 2.
    But my mum says I'm cool
  • With a sample of even 100, a 3 choice scenario should average out. At 300, the chances of a statistical anomaly or pretty remote.

    In theory it should be random, practical evidence says it isn't. Just saying.

    You may not be familiar with it, but in programming a truely random number is very difficult to achieve and the subject of much discussion amoung computer science experts.
  • I can assure OP that long-time 939ers have discussed this at length. If there was a pattern to be found, we would have found it.
  • No offense intended, but I trust the stats.
  • If anyone has any actual data bearing on this point, how about sharing it.
  • teo47
    944 posts Member
    edited January 2017
    No offense intended, but I trust the stats.

    Care to share your stats with us? I have tracked this as well, and simple statistical tests have come back to show a pattern entirely consistent with random assignment of boxes each time. There will always be anomalies such as someone getting 3 donuts in the middle box 10 times in a row that can cause them to attribute the results to a pattern that isn't actually there.

    New neighbors always welcome!
  • You may not be familiar with it, but in programming a truely random number is very difficult to achieve and the subject of much discussion amoung computer science experts.

    Computers use pseudorandom numbers for that reason, but the results are basically indistinguishable at the level humans generally use them.

    You are being far too literal about the 1 in 3 thing. It is not a statistical anomaly for it not be exactly one third each. If you tossed a coin 300 times it is extremely unlikely you would get exactly 150 heads and 150 tails, and even a 130/170 split would not be particularly suspicious given the relatively small sample size.

    I have been 939 for a while and my experience would indicate that it is a perfectly straightforward pseudorandom selection every time ... and that is the point. We perceive patterns because that is what humans do and odd-seeming runs of certain results happen because every set of boxes is selected at random at the time, and has zero bearing on what the next selection might be.

    It is also easier to program a random selection than a complex pattern, which would make it the logical design choice for something that appears so frequently in the game.

    And ... why do do many people call us computer science experts rather than what we are, which is computer scientists?

  • sflowers330
    644 posts Member
    edited January 2017
    Happy to share the data I have, what would be the best way to do that here? I keep the data in Excel for reference. Posting it as an image would be really awkward I think as it's a long list.

    Edit: I'm presuming you want more than the distribution percentages. Left, center, right.
  • I go with my gut now. If I "feel" that 3 donuts is in the middle box (or right or left) then I pick it. Like maybe more than half the time I'm right. That works for a while then I lose my ability to read it, but eventually it comes back and works again.
    Here is my signature. Or maybe it's not.
  • I always try to remember where the one donut panel was from my last collection and I'll choose that one first. Reasoning being it's less likely that the one donut panel would be in the same place twice in a row.
  • this is based on random number generator with assigned numbers to each box, identical odds no matter which you pick
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