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You guys weren't kidding!

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  • @frosted1414
    I wish they would fix the bug in the "Open if garanteed improvement" column.

    I'm glad I'm not the only one that doesn't understand that.
    I wish they would fix the bug in the "Open if garanteed improvement" column.

    Why do you say that?

    Sorry, I'm the **** who suggested a new strategem.

    Basically, under certain circumstances, instead of 'always stop at 2 or 3', it is better to open if you are guaranteed to improve the number of donuts you get.

    The only real difference under this stratagem is if you get 1, 2 then you open the third box as you are guaranteed to do better (i.e. 3), you don't stop at 2.

    This works when people choose a higher number of KEMs to farm, and have a medium multiplier (so price after resale x KEMs per donut box > 100,000).

    Happy to explain further; I note the calculation isn't quite right so I will get in touch with the designer.


    Yeah the strategy is solid, and it's a good one...I think the beef is that 'guaranteed' is spelled wrong, and that the numbers in 'Donuts per 4 hours' and 'Spend per 4 hours' are inaccurate - they're displaying the 'Total Spent'/'Total Donuts' numbers instead of the 'per 4 hours' numbers


    And on that topic, does anyone actually know what the 'Total Spent' and 'Total Donuts' rows are exactly? It isn't totally straight forward...I assumed it was the totals over all the simulation rounds, but then if you set your # of simulations to be the same as your number of KEMs, shouldn't the numbers match?....they seem to (almost) match if you set your # simulations to KEMs/8...*shrug*....not important or anything I've just always been slightly confused by it :smile:
  • Wow

    I just came to see if the thoh update was here and saw this thread.

    I'm the author of that tool.

    First and foremost I apologize for the spelling. I am French! I'll correct that.

    I'll also correct the 4 hour values this afternoon. Thanks for that.

    When I wrote the tool it was mainly a toy for personal use; I shared it on the forum without much thought to overall accuracy... as long as it worked for my specific situation. I have long since been on the "never open another box" tier so I haven't actually used the tool in a while. My main goal in writing the simulator was to disprove a number of forum users who, at the time, wouldn't accept that you could get more donuts with a strategy than by opening all boxes at fairly low to mid multipliers.

    So to clarify:
    The simulator needs to run a large number of rounds to give accurate results. I am considering replacing the simulator altogether for mathematical results, but in the meantime, the totals do indeed, or should, show the total amount spent after rebate over the life of the sim. It's not an important number or than its use in the calculation of cost per donut.

    When entering KEM, the simulator calculates the cost to purchase of each KEM as they scale in the game. The simulator averages out the total and uses that as a base price. Maybe that's what's confusing about the totals row?

    In any case I'll go over it later today and apply your corrections and perhaps simplify it a bit

    Thanks!
  • alapalme wrote: »
    Wow

    I just came to see if the thoh update was here and saw this thread.

    I'm the author of that tool.

    First and foremost I apologize for the spelling. I am French! I'll correct that.

    I'll also correct the 4 hour values this afternoon. Thanks for that.

    When I wrote the tool it was mainly a toy for personal use; I shared it on the forum without much thought to overall accuracy... as long as it worked for my specific situation. I have long since been on the "never open another box" tier so I haven't actually used the tool in a while. My main goal in writing the simulator was to disprove a number of forum users who, at the time, wouldn't accept that you could get more donuts with a strategy than by opening all boxes at fairly low to mid multipliers.

    So to clarify:
    The simulator needs to run a large number of rounds to give accurate results. I am considering replacing the simulator altogether for mathematical results, but in the meantime, the totals do indeed, or should, show the total amount spent after rebate over the life of the sim. It's not an important number or than its use in the calculation of cost per donut.

    When entering KEM, the simulator calculates the cost to purchase of each KEM as they scale in the game. The simulator averages out the total and uses that as a base price. Maybe that's what's confusing about the totals row?

    In any case I'll go over it later today and apply your corrections and perhaps simplify it a bit

    Thanks!

    Thank you kind sir.
  • alapalme wrote: »
    Wow

    I just came to see if the thoh update was here and saw this thread.

    I'm the author of that tool.

    First and foremost I apologize for the spelling. I am French! I'll correct that.

    I'll also correct the 4 hour values this afternoon. Thanks for that.

    When I wrote the tool it was mainly a toy for personal use; I shared it on the forum without much thought to overall accuracy... as long as it worked for my specific situation. I have long since been on the "never open another box" tier so I haven't actually used the tool in a while. My main goal in writing the simulator was to disprove a number of forum users who, at the time, wouldn't accept that you could get more donuts with a strategy than by opening all boxes at fairly low to mid multipliers.

    So to clarify:
    The simulator needs to run a large number of rounds to give accurate results. I am considering replacing the simulator altogether for mathematical results, but in the meantime, the totals do indeed, or should, show the total amount spent after rebate over the life of the sim. It's not an important number or than its use in the calculation of cost per donut.

    When entering KEM, the simulator calculates the cost to purchase of each KEM as they scale in the game. The simulator averages out the total and uses that as a base price. Maybe that's what's confusing about the totals row?

    In any case I'll go over it later today and apply your corrections and perhaps simplify it a bit

    Thanks!

    Cool! Thanks for the awesome utility!

    xns0yKg.gif
  • Ok guys

    Fixed "Guaranteed" spelling, ... I think...
    Fixed the "4 hours" for the last strategy.

    W/ Regards to the "Total Spent"-- the reason this is confusing is this: The number of simulation rounds is the number of bonus box dialog boxes being simulated.
    So, if you put in "20 KEM", and "1 simulation round", and you get a bonus box after 8 KEM's, the "Total" spent will be for just the 8 KEMs needed for the 1 round.

    Again - ignore those numbers, the only really important value is "Cost per Donut"!

    I'll see to making the utility simpler to use!
  • @alapalme Ah cool we both ended up in this thread at the same time! Thanks for adding my suggestion. Like you I also didn't get to use it for long before my multiplier was too high.

    I think the simulation rounds make sense - more of them should equal more accuracy on the average, right?
  • @gypsymacgyver ! Thanks again!

    Yeah the higher the rounds, the better the accuracy. Someone entering "1" round will always have flaky, unreliable and odd results.

    However I'm just about to publish a new version of the calculator that produces results mathematically rather than by simulation. I've compared the numbers to the simulation and they match-- the higher the number of 'rounds', the closer the simulator got to the results the calculator is producing.

    On the new calculator, the users don't have to enter 'number of rounds' or anything like that. It simply calculates the average cost per donut based on the odds of each strategy. Alot more straightforward.

  • I like the new calculator!.....buuuuuut I think I've found a bug :neutral: If you enter, for example, 400 KEMs @ 1100% it recommends "open if guaranteed improvement" even though "go for 2 or 3" has a lower cost per donut (the sim with the same #s recommends the "2 or 3" strategy)
  • Nice catch! Fixed that- thanks @redec69
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