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Springfield Downs now only $2000

Someone a while ago posted the new odds. Not much had changed except for the payouts.

Replies

  • SamCarterX206
    898 posts
    edited June 2013
    Also the fact that it is now every 8 hours instead of every hour on the hour.
  • Z94wzE60x8
    313 posts
    edited June 2013
    Tempting but I don't have much money at all and need to save it.
  • Jay_Wayne_2
    496 posts Member
    edited June 2013
    Wow, it only cost $2000 now? Thanks for the post, I would have never known that as I never play that mini game, lol.
  • caesarscott
    82 posts
    edited June 2013
    the odds and payouts are now accurate. comparable to what you'd get at a real race.
  • HillyBillyOli
    1422 posts Member
    edited June 2013
    Lol im just gonna bet on the highest payout to win everytime. Bound to win at some point.
  • hermosarya656
    25 posts
    edited June 2013
    I tried the 2-1 dog last night and actually won. The dialog was full of poker references. Might try this more now. Plus it gets rid of that floating dog head for 8 hours!
  • bjserink
    35 posts
    edited June 2013
    Perhaps not everyone is as mathematically inclined as I am, but statistically, you will now come out AHEAD by betting on the dogs instead of losing. In fact, regardless which type of bet you choose, your expected gain is $1030. Here's the new ratios (which now have payouts that properly reflect the ratio):

    2:1 reward $6,000 75XP chance 50.51%
    5:1 reward $12,000 100XP chance 25.25%
    9:1 reward $20,000 150XP chance 15.15%
    19:1 reward $40,000 250XP chance 7.58%
    99:1 reward $200,000 500XP chance 1.52%

    Under the old system, you would have to pay $5000 for a 50% chance of winning $6250, meaning on average you would win $3125 at a cost of $5000, thus giving you an expected loss of $1875. Similarly, the other bets had expected losses of $3500 for the middle three and $3750 for the last one. Even in Vegas you don't get ripped off that badly on your gambling!

    But now, you pay only $2000 for a 50.51% chance at $6000, meaning on average you win $3030 at a cost of $2000; an expected gain of $1030. In fact you win $3030 on average for any of the new ratios. The only difference is that you can choose between "play it safe" on the 2:1 with low risk and low reward, or "take a chance" with high risk and high reward. What you choose will probably be influenced by how much cash you have, since some will be very happy with just a gain of $4000, while others will look for windfalls of $18,000 or more. After all, you can only play once every 8 hours, and choosing the higher risk options is similar to playing the low-risk options multiple times in a "double-or-nothing" style of game - not exactly of course, but similar.
  • NeoSEC28
    39609 posts
    edited June 2013
    bjserink wrote:

    2:1 reward $6,000 75XP chance 50.51%
    5:1 reward $12,000 100XP chance 25.25%
    9:1 reward $20,000 150XP chance 15.15%
    19:1 reward $40,000 250XP chance 7.58%
    99:1 reward $200,000 500XP chance 1.52%

    Im gonna bet on the 99.1 reward right now for a laugh :lol:

    Place your bets will i win or will i lose LOL
    Volunteer EA Senior Moderator
  • Jedihntr
    828 posts Member
    edited June 2013
    NeoSEC28 wrote:
    bjserink wrote:

    2:1 reward $6,000 75XP chance 50.51%
    5:1 reward $12,000 100XP chance 25.25%
    9:1 reward $20,000 150XP chance 15.15%
    19:1 reward $40,000 250XP chance 7.58%
    99:1 reward $200,000 500XP chance 1.52%

    Im gonna bet on the 99.1 reward right now for a laugh :lol:

    Place your bets will i win or will i lose LOL

    Nothing personal, but i hope you lose. If you report that you actually won, I will immediately go and blow my cash until I win too, and I can't risk that :-)
  • NeoSEC28
    39609 posts
    edited June 2013
    Jedihntr wrote:
    NeoSEC28 wrote:
    Im gonna bet on the 99.1 reward right now for a laugh :lol:

    Place your bets will i win or will i lose LOL

    Nothing personal, but i hope you lose. If you report that you actually won, I will immediately go and blow my cash until I win too, and I can't risk that :-)

    Well i placed the bet and.....OH YEAH!!!


    I lost :lol:
    Volunteer EA Senior Moderator
  • hankscorpio23
    621 posts Member
    edited June 2013
    Good work bjserink.

    I worked it out the math myself after seeing a post a few weeks back about an upcoming change to the odds. If we can trust EA that the percentages are correct then the racetrack is now a positive money making investment over the long run. The first three odds, 2:1, 5:1 and 9:1 all pay out the same in the long run and one would expect the same positive growth regardless of which dog they choose. The 19:1 and 99:1 both produce a greater reward with the 99:1 the best money maker over a very extended amount of time. However the difference is very marginal (estimated extra 4,000 total over 200 days) that it is not worth the pain to chase it.

    I would recommend choosing one of the first three dogs and just keep picking that one every time. If you are the type that wants to squeeze even the smallest advantage out of the situation and has the patience, bankroll and pain tolerance, then playing the 99:1 is the mathematically superior play (although I reiterate an extremely small difference)

    (author is a poker player)
  • SamCarterX206
    898 posts
    edited June 2013
    !!!!!!!!! :shock:

    IMG_0122.png
  • Jedihntr
    828 posts Member
    edited June 2013
    !!!!!!!!! :shock:

    IMG_0122.png

    Oh damn. :shock:
  • NeoSEC28
    39609 posts
    edited June 2013
    !!!!!!!!! :shock:

    IMG_0122.png


    opYMJ.gif
    Volunteer EA Senior Moderator
  • diggz82
    198 posts
    edited June 2013
    So far I'm 0 for 1 on the long shot - all I'm going to bet on going forward
  • henn3001
    160 posts
    edited June 2013
    !!!!!!!!! :shock:

    IMG_0122.png

    :shock:

  • mosher666
    120 posts
    edited June 2013
    I gave it a go and surprise surprise

    I lost lol
  • algar_toon
    51 posts
    edited June 2013
    not tried it since the update, but i did have a lucky dog in drool britania, had a lot of winners with the delightful chap

    ill try him again and report back


    it was 2-1 favourite and was winning until the final straight until a young girl adopted him :x
    Post edited by Unknown User on
  • stuey88
    5 posts
    edited June 2013
    After seeing this thread I felt obliged to have a go myself......somehow Dogbiscuit came through for me!! :D

  • bjserink
    35 posts
    edited June 2013
    Good work bjserink.

    I worked it out the math myself after seeing a post a few weeks back about an upcoming change to the odds. If we can trust EA that the percentages are correct then the racetrack is now a positive money making investment over the long run. The first three odds, 2:1, 5:1 and 9:1 all pay out the same in the long run and one would expect the same positive growth regardless of which dog they choose. The 19:1 and 99:1 both produce a greater reward with the 99:1 the best money maker over a very extended amount of time. However the difference is very marginal (estimated extra 4,000 total over 200 days) that it is not worth the pain to chase it.

    I'm actually going to stand by my original statement that the average reward is the same on all bets. The percentages I showed came from TSTOTips.com, and may have been rounded to two decimal places for the blog. If the 19:1 bet is actually 7.575% chance, then it's exactly $3030 average reward. And if the 99:1 bet is actually 1.515%, it is also exactly $3030. It's possible that the numbers used by the game are rounded, but as a software developer myself, I don't think it's likely that they would be happy with approximating the winning chances!
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