# Springfield Downs now only $2000

25 posts

Someone a while ago posted the new odds. Not much had changed except for the payouts.

0

This discussion has been closed.

#### Howdy, Stranger!

25 posts

Someone a while ago posted the new odds. Not much had changed except for the payouts.

0

This discussion has been closed.

## Replies

2:1 reward $6,000 75XP chance 50.51%

5:1 reward $12,000 100XP chance 25.25%

9:1 reward $20,000 150XP chance 15.15%

19:1 reward $40,000 250XP chance 7.58%

99:1 reward $200,000 500XP chance 1.52%

Under the old system, you would have to pay $5000 for a 50% chance of winning $6250, meaning on average you would win $3125 at a cost of $5000, thus giving you an expected loss of $1875. Similarly, the other bets had expected losses of $3500 for the middle three and $3750 for the last one. Even in Vegas you don't get ripped off that badly on your gambling!

But now, you pay only $2000 for a 50.51% chance at $6000, meaning on average you win $3030 at a cost of $2000; an expected gain of $1030. In fact you win $3030 on average for any of the new ratios. The only difference is that you can choose between "play it safe" on the 2:1 with low risk and low reward, or "take a chance" with high risk and high reward. What you choose will probably be influenced by how much cash you have, since some will be very happy with just a gain of $4000, while others will look for windfalls of $18,000 or more. After all, you can only play once every 8 hours, and choosing the higher risk options is similar to playing the low-risk options multiple times in a "double-or-nothing" style of game - not exactly of course, but similar.

Im gonna bet on the 99.1 reward right now for a laugh

Place your bets will i win or will i lose LOL

EA Senior ModeratorNothing personal, but i hope you lose. If you report that you actually won, I will immediately go and blow my cash until I win too, and I can't risk that :-)

Well i placed the bet and.....OH YEAH!!!

I lost

EA Senior ModeratorI worked it out the math myself after seeing a post a few weeks back about an upcoming change to the odds. If we can trust EA that the percentages are correct then the racetrack is now a positive money making investment over the long run. The first three odds, 2:1, 5:1 and 9:1 all pay out the same in the long run and one would expect the same positive growth regardless of which dog they choose. The 19:1 and 99:1 both produce a greater reward with the 99:1 the best money maker over a very extended amount of time. However the difference is very marginal (estimated extra 4,000 total over 200 days) that it is not worth the pain to chase it.

I would recommend choosing one of the first three dogs and just keep picking that one every time. If you are the type that wants to squeeze even the smallest advantage out of the situation and has the patience, bankroll and pain tolerance, then playing the 99:1 is the mathematically superior play (although I reiterate an extremely small difference)

(author is a poker player)

Oh damn. :shock:

EA Senior Moderator:shock:

I lost lol

ill try him again and report back

it was 2-1 favourite and was winning until the final straight until a young girl adopted him :x

I'm actually going to stand by my original statement that the average reward is the same on all bets. The percentages I showed came from TSTOTips.com, and may have been rounded to two decimal places for the blog. If the 19:1 bet is actually 7.575% chance, then it's exactly $3030 average reward. And if the 99:1 bet is actually 1.515%, it is also exactly $3030. It's possible that the numbers used by the game are rounded, but as a software developer myself, I don't think it's likely that they would be happy with approximating the winning chances!