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Save Your Spins - PSA

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I'm hoping for it. I just need one more lol

Replies

  • neuroheart
    8132 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?
  • ehoffa21
    427 posts
    edited February 2014
    I have no idea but the cleared items are marked. They could simply make marked items less likely to hit. EA wants people to clear each event based on prior last minute changes so it is not out of the realm of possibility. Worst case scenario and I am wrong, people are out nothing for holding their spins.
  • mwdalton
    11545 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?

    This, exactly :lol:
  • VoiceofScully
    153 posts
    edited February 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?

    Maybe they could just give everyone the item with the lowest odds. I'm sure that would appease everyone. I can't imagine anyone getting upset at that.
  • Linkwick
    956 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?
    ^^ This. *sigh*

    Chances of missing an item so far:
    SPINS - 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
    Fences (15%) 3.88% 1.72% 0.76% 0.34% 0.15% 0.07% 0.03% 0.01% 0.006%
    Other items (10%) 12.16% 7.18% 4.24% 2.50% 1.48% 0.87% 0.52% 0.30% 0.18%
    Train (5%) 35.85% 27.74% 21.46% 16.61% 12.85% 9.94% 7.69% 5.95% 4.61%

    Train should really be taken out of the equation, as the free one counts as "winning" it on the wheel. Also, would think most people would be 30-40 spins in, as that's 2-3 spins a day.

    Mathematically, anyone missing one (or more) items is probably in the outliers of unluckiness (or has started the event late/ been locked out of their town). It's much better this time around compared to Xmas.


    Edit: Damn, you can't space out a table on here. Added colours to help distinguish what's what.
  • bren1960
    1631 posts
    edited February 2014
    Yea this was way easy to clear if you play daily with 100 friends
  • xamovo
    296 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    I thought this was about letting your spins pile up before you hit the wheel instead of doing it every 200 hearts. :oops: I know mathematically it shouldn't matter, but I have better luck when I do a bunch at once instead of as I can. That's my little tip for wheel clearing. I got my last couple items for the ToL when I did it in batches.
  • LPNintendoITA
    11610 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?

    Maybe they could just give everyone the item with the lowest odds. I'm sure that would appease everyone. I can't imagine anyone getting upset at that.
    they did, the train
    My Youtube and Twitch / WikiSimpons Current Event Page and Discord
  • Surfcitygal
    1242 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    bren1960 wrote:
    Yea this was way easy to clear if you play daily with 100 friends

    I DID this from Day 1, and just cleared the wheel last night. Was getting ready actually to buy donuts for more spins, glad I didn't have to.

    By the way my very first spin on Day 1 won the train (which I already had from last year)!
  • jayjaykay00
    242 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?

    Maybe they could just give everyone the item with the lowest odds. I'm sure that would appease everyone. I can't imagine anyone getting upset at that.
    they did, the train

    Pretty sure they we're being satirical. Since people did get upset over the train.
  • tiifanyart
    82 posts
    edited February 2014
    I agree with everyone, this wheel was very easy to clear I have duplicates of everything. :)
  • VoiceofScully
    153 posts
    edited February 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?

    Maybe they could just give everyone the item with the lowest odds. I'm sure that would appease everyone. I can't imagine anyone getting upset at that.
    they did, the train

    Pretty sure they we're being satirical. Since people did get upset over the train.

    I was. I had intended it to be an anti-joke joke. I was trying playing the role of a straight man.
  • jayjaykay00
    242 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?

    Maybe they could just give everyone the item with the lowest odds. I'm sure that would appease everyone. I can't imagine anyone getting upset at that.
    they did, the train

    Pretty sure they we're being satirical. Since people did get upset over the train.

    I was. I had intended it to be an anti-joke joke. I was trying playing the role of a straight man.

    Sadly Abbott is just awkward without Costello.
  • CamelRama
    171 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    Having just read through The Dark Tower, I can't help but be a little creeped out by Charlie the Choo Choo. :shock: ... but I can dig a town full of killer trains. :D
  • neuroheart
    8132 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    ehoffa21 wrote:
    I have no idea but the cleared items are marked. They could simply make marked items less likely to hit.
    Those who haven't cleared are all missing different things, though, so individualizing the odds or making them fluid depending on what has been hit and what hasn't... I just doubt that would be a simple program.
    You're correct, they did change the odds on the last wheel, but there were things on that wheel with something like a 1.5% chance, so they raised that chance a little bit, and lowered the slots that were 30% likelihood, but there were still people at the edges of the bell curve who never got the yeti and/or ClausCo. So with this event, they just made the odds pretty much the same for every slot, from the beginning.
    It's a better system, and there are far fewer people at the edge of that bell curve. Maybe they should have programmed it more like a deck of cards, where your odds of getting one thing go up as other "cards" go into your hand, but they didn't. Your odds are the same (approximately 10% per slot) every time you spin the wheel. I'm sorry, but that's just how it is. A program to operate more like a deck of cards isn't likely to manifest within the next week; that sort of thing takes time.
    You're also correct that saving up spins won't do any harm to someone's chances, but I don't think anyone should be getting their hopes up that the odds are going to change in their favor.
  • mpwarner
    2971 posts
    edited February 2014
    bren1960 wrote:
    Yea this was way easy to clear if you play daily with 100 friends

    I haven't. Just a bit unlucky :roll:
  • Brashman007
    1 posts
    edited February 2014
    I didn't get the yeti on the last wheel and that was the only thing I wanted on it, I bought spins and everything. There are two items I have been unable to get and I have 100 friends and play daily. I hate these wheels and think they are idiotic, I only have 5 days left now and I have 25 sets of valentine balloons and about 10 of the other things. I have already come to terms that I once again will not get the item just like at christmas. If these wheels are going to be used from now on for each event I am probably going to delete tapped out.
  • kevfd
    377 posts
    edited February 2014
    I needed the train in my 2nd SF for days and wasted a cpl dozen spins trying to get it. I was about to pack in playing until the end of the event but logged in on valentines day to see if there were any 'freebies'. Luckily it was the train lol :lol:
  • MaxxSpider
    5465 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    mwdalton wrote:
    neuroheart wrote:
    Um, the odds are already very even, it's not nearly as weighted as the holiday wheel. The lowest odds are for the train, and EA already gave everyone a train. How exactly would they change the 10% odds on the majority of items to make it easier to clear?

    This, exactly :lol:

    Lol this exactly
  • mblake525
    51 posts Member
    edited February 2014
    I'm kind of surprised that people still need to clear the wheel. Most people got it in the first couple of days.
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