Is this club still open? I'm wondering if someone else is still waiting for the 30 donuts like I am... Sigh :-/
And moreover, even if I have collected something like 50 bags to open today with the ray gun inside, I have not found any donuts there, while I can read of people finding donuts in the bags.. Why this game hate me?

Yep, I'm in, completely untainted by the elusive 30 bonuts. Yes, I said bonuts - ones you pay for are donuts, ones you get for free are bonus donuts or "bonuts". At least in my SF.

My choice for all my Tapped Out news and troll-free friendly chat is the EA officially approved Tapped Out UK

Well, the odds (published in the sticky) are 1% that you will win donuts with each ammo used. But even if you use 100 ammo through the course of the event, you are not GUARANTEED to win donuts. To inject some math (for the non-nerds) into this, the odds of winning donuts if you use 100 ammo are: 63.4 %.

Basically for large N tries, the probability of something NOT happening is 1/e (where e = 2.71828 ). The way to calculate the odds of NOT winning for this particular example of spending 100 ammo ... 0.99^100 = 36.6 %.

So I a lot of us are going to remain in this club, given how slowly ammo is awarded.

Incidentally you can use this method to calculate a lot of things. The odds of winning donuts from tapping on neighbors, for example.

... the odds of winning donuts if you use 100 ammo are: 63.4 %.
...

well, as of today I should have used something like 50 ammo (I have the raygun, that provide 2/3 ammo per day), and i'm still in the club... I hope that proceeding with the event and closing to 100 ammo I will find the donuts, but as you know, even with 99.9% odds to win, you could always loose... ;-)

Wow! Huge membership numbers for this club. That means dues will be really low, right? And if I can't find/post a Futurama gif because it's too complicated for me on my tablet then I still get in, riiiight?

(I'm also only getting one gold bag a day, if I'm lucky. And I lost connection to the server when I got Moog, so those 10 donuts disappeared. *sigh*)

## Replies

And moreover, even if I have collected something like 50 bags to open today with the ray gun inside, I have not found any donuts there, while I can read of people finding donuts in the bags.. Why this game hate me?

My choice for all my Tapped Out news and troll-free friendly chat is the EA officially approved Tapped Out UKC'mon 30 donuts! I need you!

I rarely get any missiles though, so perhaps that is why... mmm....

ETA: Actually got 3 today...amazing...but ended up with candy bars, ray guns, and a "bronze" (paper) bag. Glad to have the candy though.

Basically for large N tries, the probability of something NOT happening is 1/e (where e = 2.71828 ). The way to calculate the odds of NOT winning for this particular example of spending 100 ammo ... 0.99^100 = 36.6 %.

So I a lot of us are going to remain in this club, given how slowly ammo is awarded.

Incidentally you can use this method to calculate a lot of things. The odds of winning donuts from tapping on neighbors, for example.

Surprisingly this has made me even though I've got a ray gun, used about 110 ammo and still in this club :roll:

well, as of today I should have used something like 50 ammo (I have the raygun, that provide 2/3 ammo per day), and i'm still in the club... I hope that proceeding with the event and closing to 100 ammo I will find the donuts, but as you know, even with 99.9% odds to win, you could always loose... ;-)

(I'm also only getting one gold bag a day, if I'm lucky. And I lost connection to the server when I got Moog, so those 10 donuts disappeared. *sigh*)