Sideshow You Donuts!

MR_Plow123 wrote:
I feel like there's a lot of ambiguity with these.
I've heard from different people:

You're guaranteed donuts after every 300 rounds
You were only guaranteed donuts after the first 300 rounds
You have a 1/300 chance to get the donuts (a .33% chance)
No one has clarified if that's per balloon or per visit
No one has clarified if these probabilities are just the probability that the donuts can appear in one of the balloons we pop (ie. if the actual odds of getting donuts are 1/300 *1/6 or however many balloons there are)

Not that I don't believe the people saying they haven't gotten any donuts after x amount of time, but there's a lot of subjectivity. I also definitely won't believe anyone that just bluntly answers these questions without showing some proof. Pretty much, I'm looking for someone who actually looks at the game files to give some insight and stop the rumors.

My take is: you are guaranteed 5 donuts with every 300th balloon you pop (this is my stated opinion), which is every 100th game you play, which happens to be 1 in 100 games you win 5 donuts, which happens to be 1%, which happens to be the percentage that everyone quotes.

Is there an additional probability that you win donuts at random, outside of the guaranteed once-every-300-pops donuts? Maybe. I've not seen any evidence of this.

More likely, people have seen the 1% figure and immediately jumped to the conclusion that it's a probability that you'll win donuts, when in fact it isn't. P(Win donuts on games 1-99) = 0. P(Win donuts on game 100) = 1.