Weekly weapons Scrap Exchange updates

2022.03.13.
self loading rifles Cei-Rigotti (made in Italy) and rifles Carcano M91 Carbine (made in Italy)
What is the probability of the "Italian" week (double made in Italy)?

my calculations 🙂

The "Italian" set has 7 elements: Cei-Rigotti, Carcano M91 Carbine, Automatico M1918, Perino Model 1908, Vetterli-Vitali M1870/87, Modello 1915 Pistol, Bodeo 1889 Revolver.

The "International" set has 69 elements: Model 1900, Model 10, M1897 Shotgun, Sjögren Inertial Shotgun, 12G automatic, Ribeyrolles 1918 Carbine, Hellriegel 1915, SMG 08/18, Annihilator, MP18, Automatico M1918, RSC SMG, M1917 Trench Carbine, Maschinenpistole M1912/P.16, Farquhar-Hill, Mondragon, RSC 1917, Selbstlader M1916, General Liu, Howell Automatic, M1907 Selfloading, Fedorov Avtomat, Cei-Rigotti, Model 8 Autoloading, Selbstlader 1906, Chauchat, Parabellum MG14/17, Lewis gun, LMG 08/18, M1917 MG, MG15 N.A, BAR M1918, Madsen MG, Perino Model 1908, Huot Automatic Rifle, M1909 Benet Mercie, Lebel Model 1886, Mosin-Nagant M91, SMLE MKIII, Martini Henry, Ross MKIII, Gewehr M.95, M1903, Vetterli-Vitali M1870/87, M1917 Enfield, Gewehr 98, Type 38 Arisaka, Russian 1895, Carcano M91 Carbine, P08 Pistol, British Bulldog, Frommer Stop, Auto revolver, Nagant Revolver, Mars Automatic Pistol, 1903 Hammerless, C-93 Pistol, Repetierpistole M1912, Revolver MK VI, C96 Pistol, M1911 Pistol, NO. 3 Revolver, Howdah pistol, MLE 1903 pistol, Bodeo 1889 Revolver, Modello 1915 Pistol, Obrez pistol, M1914 Taschenpistol, Kolibri pistol, Gasser M1870 Revolver.

If the set has n elements, the number of k-combinations, denoted by C(n, k) is equal to n! / (k! (n-k)! ).
The "Italian" set has 7 elements, the number of 2-combinations, denoted by Italian(7, 2) is equal to 7! / (2! 5! ) = 21.
The "International" set has 69 elements, the number of 2-combinations, denoted by International(69, 2) is equal to 69! / (2! 67! ) = 2346.

The probability of the "Italian" week is equal to Italian(7, 2) / International(69, 2) = 21 / 2346 = 0.00895140664
And the probability of the "Sjögren Inertial Shotgun" week is equal to NoSjögren(68, 1) / International(69, 2) = 68 / 2346 = 0.02898550724

The probability of the "Sjögren Inertial Shotgun" week is three times the probability of the "Italian" week (68 / 21 = 3.2380952381).
according to my calculations 🙂

@HUN_gattaca_lg 

Cool, this means the Sjörgen must be there next week, if I understand the calculations right, together with the Coupe Coupe and the Arditi.

Yeeehaaa.

@HUN_gattaca_lg  That's meticulously researched, I'm already looking forward to the "Germanic week" of Sjögren and Selbstlader 1906 or 1916 :D

@mrtnm1994117Man this game has some serious "hate" against Selbstlander M1916 and 1906, not only are they almost never on the exchange I have bought 3-4  hundreds battlepacks with scrap and cant get distingushed or non-exchange legendrary skins for them. Crazy

@VeterinarMario  You're right. I got kind of lucky with the Selbstlader 1916 as I got the "Kagohl" and "Chancellor" legendary skins from battlepacks, but only got one ordinary skin for Selbstlader 1906 and nothing else. By the way, I got the "Chancellor" skin for Selbstlader 1916 from an operation battlepack like three times already, so you might try playing operations campaign if you want it. Some guys on Reddit have told me that the pool of skins for the operations battlepacks is rather limited, maybe you'll get it too.

@SharpGoblin Well, let's keep in touch, would be awesome and glad for people seeking them !

@mrtnm1994117 
I think Maria is one of the famous battlepack/weekly scrap exchange experts on Reddit:
maria_paraskeva (https://www.reddit.com/user/maria_paraskeva/)

the following very detailed explanation was made by Maria:
https://imgur.com/a/zEZv1lr

@HUN_gattaca_lg  Yeah, this list looks accurate, skins outlined in green are definitely more common than those outlined in red. The downside is the there clearly are more skins that are exchange only than the ones dropping from the battlepacks.