Your not going to get a hardcore focused Sim as the Officially licensed F1 game. FOM won't care it's Arcade. More Arcade means it will attract casual F1 fans and youngsters new to the sport. More sales means they can negotiate for higher licensing fees when license is up for renewal. Same for Liberty Media. As they use every opportunity to raise F1 profile and get more people interested and watching the Sport. Which opens all sorts of marketing opportunities and ability to make mo money.
Making the game less accessible for casual gamers and younger fanss new to F1 due to time and effort they would need to Git Gud. Added to the fact the game already lacks content compared to other race games, due to it being F1 series specific. Would do more harm than good.
F1 manager was cancelled because every game released fail to break Even. Despite it being decent. It only appealed to more hardcore F1 fans. Same is true for the F1 games. If a proper sim It would only appeal to hardcore F1 fans that are for most part hardcore sim racers. Thats very tiny market. F1 maybe the worlds most popular racing series. But its still very niche. Hardcore sim racers are already heavily invested with both time and money. Into the likes of iRacing etc. to be tempted away to race an F1 sim.
Yes the game needs open heart surgery when it comes to the inner workings. Handling and FFB and other mechanics such As rain needs to be addressed. making it a full on sim isn't the solution.
Salez would fall of a cliff even worse than they currently are. EA will do what they do and hand back the licensing rights. Possibly close Codies down permanently(they have done it to a number of studios)
So with the license up for grabs. For argument sake FOM decide they want the next studio to make it sim focused. Only developers that would be interested would be the likes of iRacing. But they would most likely only add it as an additional race series. Locked behind their subscription model and player's needing to be a required level.
iRacing is releasing NASCAR 25 this year. It will be a SimCade. If they made it Sim it wouldn't be financially viable. F1 would be the same