F1 23 Release Date

I'm not so sure of the line of thinking here. Both on what dropping the exclusivity clause would entail and what went on with FIFA.

There's not that simple of math exercise like "we'll grant you the copyright for our IP for 'x' and if you want exclusivity on it it will be 'x' + 'y'".

As it's been pointed out already, depending on the size of the market and the nature of the product (complexity mostly) there may not be enough of a projected return on investment for two competing products of similar depths to coexist. An exclusivity deal like this would actually have the indirect effect of maintaining the viability of the whole enterprise.

Does this apply to Codies' F1? No idea. Have we seen another simcade or simracing title focused solely or primarily on an open wheel racing league with 10 teams competing on tracks all over the world for the Formula First World Tournament, with Nando Loris and Minimum Vertonghen? We haven't.
Formula E is not a FOM asset, thus anyone could strike a deal with them and make an officially licensed Formula E game. Yet we've got nothing even remotely in the works as far as we can tell.

Dropping the exclusivity would not necessarily lead to FOM making more money and two or more companies making proper, competitive F1 games. Could very well end with a few racing games with a F1 mode in them, and Codemasters pivoting to a Grid umbilical brother - we've already got supercars in it anyway 🤷‍♂️

EA does not have the rights over football the sport. Their licensing agreement with FIFA goes back to the 90s and it grants them the right to explore the FIFA brand and the FIFA tournaments like the World Cup - with exclusivity.
That did not stop Winning Eleven > Pro Evolution Soccer > eFootball from existing and competing. I'd argue that EA's exclusivity deal over the Premier League hurt Konami way more than their rights over the FIFA branding, but even that didn't stop we from getting a proper rival game for decades.

There were enough football fans to justify that kind of investment in different games of that scale.

Do we have the same with F1?

I do not like the state of F1 games. I strongly dislike many of the franchise decisions they've made over the last years. However I am not so sure dropping the exclusivity and enabling another (most likely casual) F1 game in the market will increase the fun, increase the player base, and increase the revenue of everyone involved.

This is F1. It is the epitome of open wheel racing, yes, but not the sole category in it. This argument is probably closer to "it would be nice to have at least two FIFA World Cup and UEFA Champions League games".

Different markets.