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This is just my opinion, but I firmly believe a goalie's ability to make a save is somewhat determined by human actions. If you make a terrible positional lapse, I'm of the belief (not saying this is true) that the goal probability calculations are affected if the game determines you've made a particularly egregious error.
In your example, you can see there's a defender being controlled by a human. This is determinable by observing the player actively skating towards his goalie during an incoming rush.
This was a terrible defensive lapse that allowed McDavid to take a totally uncontested backhand.
When you consider the nature of Ultimate Team modes where every player is OP and maxed out attributes mean every shot can be pinpoint accurate, the way this play shakes out is par-for-the-course in HUT.
I agree with this logic,
I know on two on ones if you go to the puck carrier and poke check (you will miss 98% of the time as poke checks are broken), the pass will get threw and a goal
But even if Im late to recognize the pass but play the pass, and the pass gets through and the goalie makes the save.
SaME ON ONE TIMERS, If im chasing in the corners and the puck goes to the point and a one timer happens. GOAL but if I anticipate the one timer and the one timer gets through with no real interference from any player the goalie makes the save.
Same goes if I spam poke check on the rush and I miss two or more pokle checks, weaker goals from wrist shots will be scored. Where if I dont really do anything but instead play the position and the opponent takes the same shot, the goalie will make the save.
Poke checks have a behind the scenes disadvantage, and they dont even work on the surface.
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