Absolutely one win + two losses should give you the second tier reward, now it is pointless as you say to play the last game / last two games, if you win your first and lose the others.
Match making i agree with you partially. I bought good teams beforehand, but not all will do that. That being said, i lost to an basic card player and simply because my opponent was way better than me. This Ovr match making thing was in NHL 2002 "Ultimate Team" already, i will forever remember being matched against M.Lemieux x 3, Jagr x 3 lines opponents, with my basic or little better team. That in that time felt unfair.