2 week test

abegheer3 wrote:
If you are at max FP level, the odds to get a donut are 1 on 200 (0,5 %) per tap. If you have 100 friends, you can do 300 taps. This means that ON AVERAGE you get 1,5 donuts per day.

I wanted to try and explain the math better but I am afraid I am a little rusty of statistics and probability. But doing test rolls online for a 1% chance. AKA any 1 number on a d100. The range was from 0 to 6 times X number came up in 300 rolls. I think the probability is 3% to get 1 donut out of 300 taps if the chance is 1% to get 1 donut. But given that is seems more likely to get 2 donuts out of 300 taps I can't reconcile that with math. Because statistically we should be getting more days with just one donut than 2 donuts. Yet this does not appear to be the case. My brain hurts from watching lesson plans on probability. This much I know the probability of getting 1 success out of 300 is higher than getting 2 success out of 300. Yet it seems like almost every day I get 2 donuts. I do recall getting 3 donuts some days but I can't quite put a relational amount vs the days I get 2 donuts. Except that I'm getting 2 donuts per day far more often than 1 or none at all. In fact in my experience I'm more likely to get donuts than I am to not get any at all. This seems to be contrary to the math. So it has me wondering if there is more to us getting donuts from friend taps than just probability.