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Bomb319's avatar
Bomb319
7 years ago

There is DEFINITELY some funny business going on with donut bonus selections.

Out of the usual one, two or three donut bonus, I got ELEVEN single donut "worst prizes" in a row. The odds of this happening by chance if there were truly a fair one-in-three shot are 1/3^11, or about one in 177,147. Not only that, but this keeps happening REPEATEDLY - not quite so many in a row, but almost always NOT the one-in-three chance you would expect.

Thoughts?
  • daved7637397's avatar
    daved7637397
    7 years ago
    "liamchandler;c-1929321" wrote:

    Please stop with these threads.


    Amen! And a few others that a constantly repeated.
  • lucienleon519's avatar
    lucienleon519
    Rising Rookie
    7 years ago
    "KrustyBrand;c-1929380" wrote:
    Wikipedia:

    The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable “streaks” or “clusters” arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. The illusion is caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or semi-random data.


    That absolutely explains my perception about the level-up boxes being a short-change. Mea culpa, I authored one of these threads recently.

    But I maintain that the Maggie boxes are consistently returning 3 donuts a time. I haven't been keeping a record, but I'd guess around 8 times out of 10. Maybe 6 or 7 times out of 10 to account for perception bias - but still a good hit rate.

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