We may not even get the first community prize
Calm yourself down. Not everybody has updated yet (I haven't and won't be able to for another 16 hours), and we already know from experience that EA's "countdowns" aren't very accurate.
Forum Discussion
As I posted in another thread (putting the legitimacy of the counter aside... :-p)
Some rough calcs (yes, 'cos I got bored at work):
Assumptions:
- 3 presents per hr from Presents Depo (PD) tree,
- 33% chance of present drop per present opened,
- gifting presents only awarded from opening other presents (either from friends or PD tree).
*All based on limited experience within first 12hrs of event being open*
From everyone's start value of (approx) 15 presents when placing the PD tree, we get 8 presents to gift in total (15-> 5-> 2-> 1-> 0). First day (16hrs from 8am PST) we possibly get 48 presents from PD tree, so 25 to re-gift to friends. Every other day we get 72 gift presents from PD tree, meaning 35 to re-gift.
If we need 89.285m gifts each day (over 28 days) to make 2.5b gifts Community total, we'd need 2,480,159 daily players each and every day (from Day 1), each re-gifting & getting their share of re-gifts & passing them on, getting their 35 gifts & re-gifts. (And yes, if you get more it doesn't matter - your extra gifts all fall under the original sender's re-gifting chain above.)
We can only wait and see if the Community rate speeds up. We all should make the individual totals easily enough - gift card payouts are at least 3x Halloween's Goo rate for all tasks, friend visits, etc., but if the Community rate speeds up and we make it with days to spare, I'll be extremely suss on it being legit (again!! :-p). Otherwise we need other avenues to get gifts... maybe from visiting friends?
