Forum Discussion
8 Replies
- Gabochido9 years agoSeasoned Veteran
I have a theory.
I believe that during the limited release (before October), back when packs only gave 3 cards and only 1 of them could be rare or better, the odds of getting a hero were fairly high. From my experience and seeing other posters talk about their pack openings, I'd say it was about 1 in 6 or 1 in 8 odds to get a legendary and that legendary had about 50%-75% chance to be a hero. Back then, the guaranteed hero packs were also cheaper, only 600 gems.
With the global release, the developers must have come to the conclusion that it made sense to reduce the probabilities of getting new heroes, maybe to make them more exciting or maybe because each hero unlocks 10 quests that give you plenty of cards, sparks and gems (we didn't have those back then either until the last month) and are thus more valuable. It seems to me that per pack there is a higher probability of getting a legendary now, since more cards within each pack have a probability of being a legendary and you get more cards per pack, so I get the feeling the greatly reduced the odds of a legendary being a hero to something like 10%-20% chance. It could also be that the odds are reduced when you have more heroes.
My personal experience was this:
Before global release
6 starting heroes
2k pack 3 heroes
2k pack 1 hero
2k pack 4 heroes
After global release
5k pack 1 hero
total: 15 heroes
Given that the odds are now fairly low, it could be that the 750K pack is well worth it to get any missing heroes, given that if you already have most of the cards, you'll get mostly sparks out of packs.
- Anonymous9 years ago
I can see this. When I first started playing (mid october I think) I got two heroes in my first... 10-12 packs maybe.
I've gotten 0 since in about 40-50 packs.
- Anonymous9 years ago
I assume that everyone here is actually getting Heroes...but they are Heroes they already own, so that hero is "lost."
The game doesn't say "This guy gets a new Hero...go look at his collection and see which Hero he needs." It says "He got X Hero. Oops, he already had X. Too bad, start over."
Let's say the chance on opening any new card is an awesome 2% that it checks for a Hero.This means on average one new Hero per 50 new cards.
BUT
Let's further say that there are 20 Heroes or a 5% chance of any given Hero.So, when a Hero loot check succeeds, the game returns a number from 1 to 20 (1 for each Hero).
If you already have the Hero, the algorithm returns "invalid result" and it randomizes again FROM THE BEGINNING.You lose out and it likely gives you another random card instead.
As you start filling up on Heroes, mathematically the chances start to drop precipitously.
If you own 10 (of 20) Heroes, then half the time, each time you win a new Hero, you get no Hero.
Your chance has dropped from 2% (1 per 50 cards) to 1% (1 per 100 cards), and it only gets worse from there.
Imagine if you have 16 (of 20) Heroes...each time you get a shot at a new Hero, now you only have a 20% chance to get a valid Hero.
But that is only 20% of a 2% chance...now you only have a 0.4% chance (20% x 2% = 0.4%) to get a new Hero on each card.
That works out to on average 1 new Hero per 250 new cards.
I assume this is why everyone observes a high rate of new Heroes when they are new to the game and lower rates as they play more. - Anonymous9 years ago
http://answers.ea.com/t5/forums/replypage/board-id/pvz-heroes-general-discussion-en/message-id/853
People generally post how many Heroes they got but never say how many they had to start.*
I just don't think it's possible to analyze one without the other. - Anonymous9 years ago
Okay so I did my daily quests and did some multiplayer game too trying to get gems. It's really hard compared to my first 2000 gems...
Even worse I have no more fun.. So I stated that I deleted the game after opening my 23 packs. A few days later I was re downloading the game to give it another chance as many people replied to my topic.
I really think the game has potential to be really great but it's not enough rewarding somehow.
But anyway, now I'm really done, that's gonna be my last message here and won't read new messages.And I just deleted the game for good now.
Thank you for all the persons who took time to reply me.
@jcalton wrote:
I assume that everyone here is actually getting Heroes...but they are Heroes they already own, so that hero is "lost."
The game doesn't say "This guy gets a new Hero...go look at his collection and see which Hero he needs." It says "He got X Hero. Oops, he already had X. Too bad, start over."
Let's say the chance on opening any new card is an awesome 2% that it checks for a Hero.This means on average one new Hero per 50 new cards.
BUT
Let's further say that there are 20 Heroes or a 5% chance of any given Hero.So, when a Hero loot check succeeds, the game returns a number from 1 to 20 (1 for each Hero).
If you already have the Hero, the algorithm returns "invalid result" and it randomizes again FROM THE BEGINNING.You lose out and it likely gives you another random card instead.
As you start filling up on Heroes, mathematically the chances start to drop precipitously.
If you own 10 (of 20) Heroes, then half the time, each time you win a new Hero, you get no Hero.
Your chance has dropped from 2% (1 per 50 cards) to 1% (1 per 100 cards), and it only gets worse from there.
Imagine if you have 16 (of 20) Heroes...each time you get a shot at a new Hero, now you only have a 20% chance to get a valid Hero.
But that is only 20% of a 2% chance...now you only have a 0.4% chance (20% x 2% = 0.4%) to get a new Hero on each card.
That works out to on average 1 new Hero per 250 new cards.
I assume this is why everyone observes a high rate of new Heroes when they are new to the game and lower rates as they play more.Highly unlikely. I had 6 basic heroes, opene 53 packs so far and I have got only 1 hero, so I have 7 now. 1 hero per 50 packs is hilarious.
I only have the initial 6 heroes, as well I saved 2000 gems to open 26 packs (20+6) and got bad cards and no heroes. Total disappointment
I will say, I have also noticed a drastic change in the number of legendaries and heroes received over the last month or so. When I first started (October), I opened a series of packs through the free gems. I got something like 3-4 heroes, and a ton of legendaries. I then bought a single premium pack and got maybe 3-4 legendaries. At this point I had spent $20 and literally had 3 kernel korn, a cornucopia, and some 3-4 additional legendaries. I was pretty happy.
Then, I decided I wanted to try making some zombie decks and get a couple of barrel of beards, tricksters, etc. I opened 3 of the special "Professor Brainstorm" premium packs (figured the legendary drop rates were going to be the same, but a smaller selection pool). That's a total of 33 packs. I opened zero legendaries in total, and something like 5-6 super rares. To say I was upset would be a big understatement. Then I opened a single zombie pack with the leftover gems and got a trickster. I know a lot of this is playing the odds, but there is something very wrong here. I also realized it's much better to just get the zombie/plant packs (besides the point), but after spending that amount of money you'd expect at least ONE legendary.
The differences in legendary "drop" rates seems to have changed dramatically. It almost takes away the desire to buy packs completely. Love the game but c'mon. At the end of the day it feels like spending $10 to get 1000 craft at best. /end rant.
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