Character freezes at one point on map

I hope someone can help, I've been googling about this for days. There is one spot in the Arbor Wilds where I can't move forward. (It's after fighting a battle in the river, on the way to the second barricade - you come out of the river onto a path.) I start to run up the path, and the controlled character just freezes. Not the whole game - I can switch to a different character and get this one back, move the camera and so on - but can't move forward. At all.

Video of what I mean is here.

Switching to tactics mode and trying to 'move to point' doesn't work either.

Switching to a different character in this party doesn't work.

I loaded an old save from a character I've already completed the game with, so I KNOW I made it past that point, but that character also freezes, the same way, in the same spot. (Which means even if I gave up this progress and started all over, it would probably not work.)

Yes, I have mods - just a few aesthetic things that were there the last time I got through. Removing them does not solve the problem.

Drivers are updated.

Repairing the game didn't work.

Uninstalling and reinstalling the game didn't work. (The video is from AFTER having done all this.)

I don't have the Discord overlay, which apparently sometimes does weird things.

Hastebin specs are here: there's a fair bit of DAI hanging, because it seems to want to take forever to exit to the menu and I am not patient so end up closing it in the task mgr. May be related or not.

I will say this isn't the same computer I started playing on; I had to reinstall everything onto a new machine about a year ago, so it's possible I messed something up there, but I've been playing since then and this is the first and only time anything has gone wrong. It seems like a really weird error to have. Performance thing? Random glitch? Is there a debugger or something I can use to jump ahead in the plot? I'd really like to move on from this one teensy area and I've been trying to find a fix for this for days.

Anyone have any advice? Please?