I am just speculating here, but it sound a lot like the game cannot load the first video file that it has to play and then crashes. Or perhaps the issue is on hardware side.
Again, just speculating, but what you could try is to:
1. Uninstall Visual C++ 2015 and 2013 packages from Control Panel and install them a new via vc redistributable installers than came with the game. Example location for me: C:\Program Files (x86)\Origin Games\Need for Speed Payback\__Installer\vc
2. If you are using Windows 10, disable Windows Game Mode. To do this:
Press WINDOWS key -> Click on the "Settings" button -> Click on "Gaming" -> Click on "Game Mode" -> Disable it -> Close the window.
3. Ensure that Profile folder exists on your computer. For me it is located here: C:\Users\GZBoy\OneDrive\Documents\Need For Speed(TM) Payback
I doubt any of the above helps, but still might work. The less solid idea would be outdated video codecs... you could try to download new video codecs, I use K-lite video codecs for example - https://www.codecguide.com/download_kl.htm