Forum Discussion

Anonymous

9 years ago

SolvedApproved

Mystery Prize

Regarding Mystery Prize after the races. 1. It doesn't look like we are actually getting it based on our luck because consistently it's always 1 blueprint per 3 races. It's not just blueprints of c...

ManjaXXXXX
9 years ago
Picking up cards is not based on luck. There is an order to it.

Example:-
B - Blueprint
P - Part
C - Cash
V - Visual Points

Replace B with P2(2nd part) in-case of non-BP races. The order goes somewhat like this

BPCV PVBC CBVP VBCP VCBP BVPC ...
and so on with all permutations of these four rewards.

Now, when a player plays three consecutive races, he may be in any particular (starting)position in this sequence.
Based on this, a player may get PPV, PCB, BBP anything. That is why players say that they receive two blueprints sometimes out of three races. But in the long run, everything evens out.
Also, it is important to play the other two races even if you get the desired part/blueprint in the first attempt. Else you will get the other rewards the next time you play this race, and your rewards quest gets delayed.

HeretikJirka

Rising Ace

9 years ago

@peniastall wrote:

Well this topic is very diffuse, some players claim that it's not lucky at all and is predetermined, another claim (me included) it's lucky, several times happened that I got 2 battery or 2 gasket or 2 relay or 2 bearing, every single day I'm farming all of these 4 materials, I race all the races possibles.

I noticed that mostly every 3 races you get 1 of the desired prize, but sometimes you don't get it and sometimes you get 2, so for me works like that, racing all the races. BTW last days I'm getting lucky with battery, now I have 12 and believe me that's really strange, this is the first time that I'm be able to have them in stock because I'm always farming them.

Happy racing!!

It is called cognitive bias - basically that you experience what you are expecting, neglecting all the negatives 🙂

You are free to make your own experiments/statistics, but you need to include/record all cases, not just the ones you remember. I have already started that in races for bearing, hose, battery and CCX blueprints, will post it later, once gathering some data.

My experience so far:

- prizes are not in a strict order, some randomization does occur

- it is heavily moderated, which means most extreme cases will not happen.

What I have experienced:

- two wanted prizes (BP, material needed) out of three replays

- not a single wanted prize out of three replays

What I have NEVER experienced (maybe not impossible to reach, only improbable):

- getting THREE wanted prizes out of three replays

- getting VPs twice in three replays

- having all three slots filled with VPs

Anonymous

9 years ago

Approved

There is definitely no luck involved in the Mystery prizes i feel. we need to find a pattern..Maybe we can all post the way we pick the cards(our patterns) and see whose is the best. Let's just assume for this that it's not a predefined prize that we get.

1. By default i pick first card(left most) most of the time- Good especially so far on the first boss for getting 15k.

2. When two cards are same - Picking the middle card. Hits the one most of the time.

3. Boss 2 - Middle card to get 15k.

4. All different prizes - Picking the one that flipped showing the card i wanted.

HeretikJirka
Rising Ace
9 years ago
@icearmor - it is generally believed there is no point in contemplating which card you choose, as what you get is already predefined, no matter which card you turn. When you say that picking the middle card gets you the prize you wanted most of the time, it is probably because it gets you that prize more often than not - try to make a statistics and you should find you get what you want in about two cases out of three (which is of course the same for the left and right card as well).
- Anonymous
  9 years ago
  Approved
  As Heretikjirka says, the prize is predetermined by the system once the cards flip, so it doesn't matter which card you pick, you will get whatever the system has decided based upon the statistical algorithm used. The 3 mystery cards create the illusion that you have a chance of choosing something different depending on which card you pick... but once the cards flip, regardless of which card you choose, you're going to get the same reward, left middle or right.
  The system definitely doesn't use a purely random algorithm to determine which of the four mystery prizes you get. If it did, statistically (on 4 options e.g. BP, Cash, VP, Material) you should get 3 of the same prize in one run (being 3 consecutive replays), every 64 runs (i.e. every 32 days at 2 runs a day). To get 3 BP's in the same run would happen every 256 runs as that adds another factorial into the equation. Since no-one has ever recorded having 3 of the same prize in one run, the system's algorithm prevents this from happening based upon previous prizes claimed in the same run.
  My system is simple and it works for me. If I'm racing for BP, as soon as I get the BP I stop and move on to boss replays for cash, or I target the material I want. Yes, on the odd occasion even though it's possible to get 2 BP in a 3 race run, it doesn't happen often enough to warrant the fuel spend.
  I never use gold to flip a mystery card, even if I know it has a BP, because I get a lot more value out of 30 gold by refilling my tank than scoring one BP or material.
2675zv06
9 years ago
It works most of the time with me too