Legacy challenge oh lord!

"igazor;c-16277384" wrote:

Not necessarily. That would only be true if there were a static pool of 100 jellybeans that decremented by one each time a bean was drawn. So the next few times there would be 99, then 98, then 97, etc. beans in the pool, with an ever increasing chance of drawing a black one until eventually, if the sim survives that many draws, only the black one is left and it has to be the one drawn.

But that's not what happens, the pool is refreshed to 100 each time and the 1% chance on each draw doesn't change. Otherwise any sims who lived on a steady diet of the things would have a much shorter life expectancy and the visits from Grimmy for this reason alone would then indeed be inevitable. At least I assume this is the way it works or else we would all have a lot more dead sims on our hands instead of the Death by Jellybean ghost state being such an apparent rarity. ;)

Not the same thing, but thinking along the lines of your doctor question, how about the shocking revelation that almost half of all people in the world have an IQ of 100 or lower? (Of course since 100 is the median IQ by definition this isn't really very shocking, it's the equivalent of saying that almost half of everyone are "below average" in any respect.)

Well ... If you would like to make the case that if a Sim continues to eat jelly beans it is possible they die before one kills them ... I cannot disagree with that.

I believe my point was focused more on the fact probability in itself also represents possibility no matter how rare.
Of course I have never been the type to associate too much importance on expectancy, relativity nor the median of anything.
To consider 1% status as unfavorable, simply improbable or unachievable ... Is just not that appealing.

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