Forum Discussion
puzzlezaddict
8 years agoHero+
In deeply meaningful philosophical situations like this, I always like to consider the cumulative percentage risk of an event occuring (i.e. dying from a black jellybean) over a certain period of time or number of chances. For example, how many jellybeans would your sim have to plan to eat in a row for the risk of dying to rise above 50%? (I mean the total risk, as in, the sim could have died eating any one of them.) Obviously, no matter how many the sim has eaten before, the risk going forward is still 1/100 per jellybean, but you can still get a sense of what your odds are if you decide to force-feed your sim a certain number per day. Not that anyone here would ever do that, of course.
Risk of dying > 10%: 11 jellybeans
Risk of dying > 25%: 29
Risk of dying > 50%: 69
Risk of dying > 75%: 138
Risk of dying > 90%: 230
Risk of dying > 95%: 299
Risk of dying > 99%: 459
So I guess for those intrigued by the jellybean-only diet... You've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?
Risk of dying > 10%: 11 jellybeans
Risk of dying > 25%: 29
Risk of dying > 50%: 69
Risk of dying > 75%: 138
Risk of dying > 90%: 230
Risk of dying > 95%: 299
Risk of dying > 99%: 459
So I guess for those intrigued by the jellybean-only diet... You've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?