Chances next update includes land

amcevil wrote:
I like people with a positive outlook, because I certainly don't have one - generally speaking. And I say giving new land a 75% chance is very positive indeed.

I look at it this way - there's been what? 58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication. Because EA has only added land once, it makes it difficult to guess what kind of timeline is reasonable to expect another new land drop.

Thusly, I voted zero percent.

mwdalton wrote:

amcevil wrote:
58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication.
...
Thusly, I voted zero percent.

Saying that there's a 0% chance is just as silly as saying there's a 100% chance. I voted 50%, it could go either way.

neuroheart wrote:

mwdalton wrote:

amcevil wrote:
58 updates, and one has included new land for SF. The chances of the next upcoming update or any particular update including new land are exceedingly small if the past is any indication.
...
Thusly, I voted zero percent.

Saying that there's a 0% chance is just as silly as saying there's a 100% chance. I voted 50%, it could go either way.

Well, 1 out of 58 would give it a 0.017% chance, which is close enough to zero to make no difference. (Neglecterino or some other math guy can correct me if I'm wrong.)

amcevil wrote:

mwdalton wrote:
Even a 1% chance is closer to a 25% chance than a 0% chance is, in terms of the event actually happening.

Source: Probability.

There was no option between 0 and 25, so I took the lower one. I don't think that's silly.