Donut Boxes: Using Stat to Uncover the Truth

"heyababy47428;c-1825317" wrote:

"daved7637397;c-1825264" wrote:

"1ahackamacka;c-1825028" wrote:

"wiedmannaj;c-1824537" wrote:

"bqlehmann;c-1824336" wrote:

"HappyGamer73;c-1823795" wrote:
Nicely done, of course this really only answers half the question. This shows that the donuts are evenly distributed, but not that they are randomly distributed. What needs to be shown, in other words, is that there is no recurring pattern or tendency. This is much more difficult to prove. You need to show that where you find the donuts one time has no bearing on where they will be in the future. You could, for example, test for correlations between where the donuts are in one round and where they are the next round. If, say, you find them in box 1, the first time, there should still be a 33% chance of finding them in any given box the next round. You could then check for longer correlation lengths by making sure that the third round is still random after the first (or first and second) round.

You could easily get carried away with this, but I don't think anyone really has THAT much spare time! :)

You're totally right. I'm hoping someone suggests their personal method for getting more donuts that I could apply some statistics. So far no one's suggested "Pick Box 3, then 1, then 1, then 2 until you get 1 donut, then box 3 will definitely have 3 donuts!" or anything like that, but I'm hoping someone still will!

My personal method always gets me 3 donuts.

Keep opening boxes until you get 3 donuts?

Thats how I do it ;) absolutely foolproof!

foolproof, but ultimately wasteful if your multiplier is over 600%