Donut Farming Newbie, Advice please

"alapalme;1561568" wrote:

"sflowers330;1561507" wrote:
If you're farming bonus boxes, you'll end up opening lots. On average you'll pay $50k for every bonus box opened. Unless you have a multiplier which would get you another bonus from the 50k (3500%ish) you should always pay to 3.

This is incorrect. That was the point on building the simulator I linked earlier. I'm at 733℅ + SH and with the collider I need to spend 109k to get another bonus. It's still more cost effective for me to stop at 2 donuts, and soon enough to stop at the first box.

Try the simulator to see. Someone did the math in another post and came to the same conclusion

The reason is this:
My 109k has a 1/3 chance of giving 3, 2 or 1 donuts
That's an average of 2 donuts for 55k each. So on the front it seems like the 50k for the second and third box is a good deal. The problem is if you open the first box and it's 2 donuts, the next box might be 1, costing you 100k just to go from 2 to 3 donuts.

At my multiplier each strategy is pretty close but at about 800℅ + sh it's always more profitable to stop at 2 donuts

I didn't think so either until I wrote the simulator

Sorry but you're incorrect.

Thanks but I've done the math, and confirmed with observation. The average cost is 50k.

One chance of chance of 3 in the first round (33%). Zero cost.
Two chances of 3 in the second round. (17% each) costing 50k each.
Two chances of 3 in the third round (17% each). Costing 100k each.

Multiply the cost by the probability and sum, you'll see the average cost of getting three donuts is $50k.