L_B_123XD wrote:
I've yet to get the kart, I don't know what the odds of it are but it must be unbelievably low as I've had like 20 spins and not got anywhere near it.
The odds for most of the items is 10% actually. The two exceptions are the train (5%) and the fence sections (15%) It's much, much more balanced than the christmas wheel odds.
But this starts off the whole discussion of what "odds" means when it comes to spinning a wheel. It's not like a deck of cards, where your odds of getting a certain card change every time a new card is drawn from the deck. They reset every time.
If you just won, say, a lamp post, your odds of landing on a lamp post next time you spin are
still 10% and your odds of spinning something
other than a lamp post are also still 10% (with the two exceptions) so spinning the same thing multiple times or failing to spin one thing after multiple tries does not mean that one has higher odds and one has lower odds.
And just because something has odds of 10% does not mean that one out of every ten spins will land on that particular thing. After 1000 spins, it might work out that 100 of those spins was a flower cart, but some of those might have come right in a row, with long lulls between them. It's like flipping a coin. Sure, eventually it might work out that 50% of the flips were heads and 50% were tails, but you can also flip the same thing seven times in a row, so if you're only looking at ten flips, it looks like totally different odds. You have to flip 100 times or more for the odds to really start being reflected by your data. That's why sample size is important in statistics. You can't interview five people and extrapolate the census of the entire country; you need millions of data points.
What I'm essentially saying is, your sample size of what you have received from the wheel is not sufficient for you to determine the odds. (I, for example, have something like eight flower carts. But I only have two fountains, and the fountain was the last item I had on the wheel when I cleared it. Yet the odds of the two items are the same, overall.)
Statistics is weird like that. It's part of what makes it such a difficult class for a lot of students.
