The maths of the Wheel (probability/odds)
Good luck everyone :D
Forum Discussion
Obviously I didn't have the odds when I made my post, now we have seen them and that's great, they can be factored in to give accurate probabilities, but the main points stand which are:
A) what prize you win is determined long before the wheel stops spinning, and if it 'almost lands on what you want' it's just for show and
B) it's a low probability gamble, especially once many of the prizes with higher odds are removed from the board. If 100 people are down to the ice god as their final prize, only ~2 will get it on their first spin, around 20 people out of the 100 will win it within 10 spins.
Does this make the wheel rigged? As I said, of course it doesn't...
It'd be like going fishing in a pond, there's 8 dumb fish and 2 smart ones. You catch the 8 dumb fish straight away and are thinking 'this is great' but you can't get those last two. You see them swim close and think you almost have them, but it just doesn't happen.
What do you do at this point? Do you take the 8 fish you caught and quit while you are ahead, or do you sit at the pond all day hoping for the small chance of catching the last two fish, only to end up breaking your rod over your knee and declaring the pond 'rigged'?
A) what prize you win is determined long before the wheel stops spinning, and if it 'almost lands on what you want' it's just for show and
B) it's a low probability gamble, especially once many of the prizes with higher odds are removed from the board. If 100 people are down to the ice god as their final prize, only ~2 will get it on their first spin, around 20 people out of the 100 will win it within 10 spins.
Does this make the wheel rigged? As I said, of course it doesn't...
It'd be like going fishing in a pond, there's 8 dumb fish and 2 smart ones. You catch the 8 dumb fish straight away and are thinking 'this is great' but you can't get those last two. You see them swim close and think you almost have them, but it just doesn't happen.
What do you do at this point? Do you take the 8 fish you caught and quit while you are ahead, or do you sit at the pond all day hoping for the small chance of catching the last two fish, only to end up breaking your rod over your knee and declaring the pond 'rigged'?
