The maths of the Wheel (probability/odds)

just_glyding wrote:
Ok so there have been complaints that the 'wheel is rigged', that its a cash grab, that its how EA makes its money etc, but I honestly don't think its the case, and I'll explain why, hopefully with a minimal wall of text.

There are lots of people saying 'Oh the wheel is great I got lots of great prizes'

Where we have others saying 'I keep getting money instead of prizes, the wheel is dumb/rigged'

Obviously, it all comes down to how much money is on the wheel.

My belief is that all the newish players who weren't around last year, are cleaning up on the wheel and loving it, because they probably started out with no money on the wheel, and as each prize was won then slowly those prizes were replaced with cash.

For older players who were here last Christmas and have all the Christmas lights, and/or who already bought premium items like Mr Plow etc, well those prizes are replaced by money on the wheel, and thus these players have a vastly increased chance of spinning up cash rather than a worthwhile prize.

Lets look at a specific example, Josh complained how hard it was to win the last prize on the wheel.

EDIT: Well now we have been given the odds by spAnser, we have a much better idea why some prizes are harder to win:
Claus Co 1.56%
Decorated Houses #1 20.22%
Snow Monster 1.68%
Decorated Houses #2 20.22%
Helter Shelter 2.25%
Decorated Houses #3 20.22%
Ice God 2.25%
Mr. Plow & Plow King 5.05%
Simpson Family Snowmen 13.48%

Using probability mathematics (skip this if it bores you), say your last prize left on the wheel was Mr Plow, the odds of getting the prize on your first OR second spin comes out at 9.84% (1 minus the odds of getting money twice, which is 1 - 0.9495*0.9495

Odds of getting the prize within three spins = 14.4% (1- 0.9495*0.9495*0.9495)

And so on as follows:
Spin 1 5.05%
Spin 2 9.84%
Spin 3 14.40%
Spin 4 18.72%
Spin 5 22.83%
Spin 6 26.72%
Spin 7 30.42%
Spin 8 33.94%
Spin 9 37.27%
Spin 10 40.44%
Spin 11 43.45%
Spin 12 46.30%
Spin 13 49.02%
Spin 14 51.59%
Spin 15 54.04%
Spin 16 56.36%
Spin 17 58.56%
Spin 18 60.65%
Spin 19 62.64%
Spin 20 64.53%
Spin 21 66.32%
Spin 22 68.02%
Spin 23 69.63%
Spin 24 71.17%
Spin 25 72.62%
Spin 26 74.01%
Spin 27 75.32%
Spin 28 76.57%
Spin 29 77.75%
Spin 30 78.87%
Spin 31 79.94%
Spin 32 80.95%
Spin 33 81.91%
Spin 34 82.83%
Spin 35 83.69%
Spin 36 84.52%
Spin 37 85.30%
Spin 38 86.04%
Spin 39 86.75%
Spin 40 87.42%
Spin 41 88.05%
Spin 42 88.66%
Spin 43 89.23%
Spin 44 89.77%
Spin 45 90.29%
Spin 46 90.78%
Spin 47 91.24%
Spin 48 91.69%
Spin 49 92.11%
Spin 50 92.51%

So what this means is, for every 100 people who got down to Mr Plow as their last prize on the wheel, ~5 of them will spin it up first go, ~10 second go. Roughly half the players will have it by spin 13, and three quarters by spin 27.

The other quarter will be cursing the screen and calling EA money grubbing low lifes that they still haven't won it.

Does that make it rigged?
No

Does it make you unlucky as hell?
Sure

If EVERYONE got the last prize within ten spins, or twenty spins, or even thirty spins, THEN you could say the wheel was rigged (in a good way, but still rigged), if some don't, then its absolutely normal and expected by the laws of probability.

Doesn't make it rigged, doesn't make it a cash grab, it makes it a game of luck, and if you are willing to pay money for 30 spins (150 donuts, $10+) in a day, then its literally a cash gamble.

So know the odds, and make the choice whether to play or not accordingly. There is always a chance you could be one of the unlucky ones, but hey, you could also be one of the lucky ones.

Whether you want to call it rigged or not, the spinner wheel was an incredibly poor and misleading choice. They present the Spinner Wheel as is there's an equal chance of landing on any one space, which isn't the case. So in that case, it is rigged, or misleading, or whatever you want to call it. They should have just used a blind lottery approach, where you're presented a random prize each time, as opposed to the misleading spinner which represents itself as having an equally likely chance for each prize, which is certainly not the case based on SpAnser's posted odds.

If they'd used the blind lottery/random award approach, there'd probably be far less complaining and miffed people here on the boards. Those complaints aren't unfounded or unwarranted. A lot of the Spinner Wheel apologists (for lack of a better term) seem to overlook that.

I like all the math and everything you guys have put into this thread, but all I have to say is that wheel is flat out BS.

I took my chances with 40 coins I spent donuts on. I have 10 spots on the wheel. 3 of them were cash. I hit those 3 cash spots 38 times. And the other 2 were $50 gift cards.
That is a bunch if crap. And I never complain about this game. But EA can take the snow monster and Claus co and shove em.
I'm done with the wheel

cvf007 wrote:
I've gotten one thing off the wheel and then money so far now... I just wanna win the snowman monster and not give a care anymore

Got Yeti on 3rd free after 2 winning only $$. Very happy. Don't care so much about other prizes. He's too cute, wish he had tasks. I'm a long time player, have lights from last year. My wheel had 3 $$ slots.