Re: Examination of heirloom probability of single packs

This is some good work here man.  As I see it from just observation, the chance MUST be far lower than 1/500.  Else we'd see posts around the net all the time from people getting them very early, given the number of players.  Not so many such reports are received, only enough to know that it is possible.

I recently received heirloom shards.  If it wasn't my 500th pack, it was very close.  I knew for certain that I was within ~30 packs of 500 when I got it (not that my own anecdote is terribly relevant).