Season 16 Comeback

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@reconzero wrote:
@Xubunnytwo

"As for TDM quitters issue, the best I could think of would be a penalty box (5 mins) for manual quits. Then immediate replacement of the quitter with a decent AI while they seek a replacement. This would grant the team some support while the new member spawns. Maybe also hide the score from them for 3 minutes to assure they stick around to help."

If they try a quit penalty there are several things that may happen. First and most likely, people will simply put the controller down and physically walk away for whatever amount of time needs to pass before the match expires. If they try an afk ban then people will put a rubberband around a thumbstick... and walk away for whatever amount of time needs to pass before the match expires. In my experience there is no way on earth that punishments create able and motivated teammates. These players are already being punished by what they will perceive, rightly or wrongly, as cheating or by very, very bad matchmaking. So "let the beatings commence until morale improves" is throwing gas on the fire, not water.

Replacing with decent AI has a few problems. First, I haven't seen anything in this game to date that would pass for decent AI. I haven't even really seen it in other games, though Halo's new bots are, in some ways, adequate. Even so, drop those in and see how fast the winning squad gets kvetchy.

Then: go ahead and try hiding the scoreboard from any player at any time for any reason. Instaquit. I guarantee it. And honestly, a player joining mid-match already knows exactly why they're there whether they can see numerical evidence or not.

The problem across the board is that players are looking for balance, fairness, and equity in their matches. In battle royale it can often take a lengthy amount of time to determine if any of those qualities are present in the match. Sometimes you don't know until there are only two squads left, and sometimes not even then. The game-killing flaw with TDM is that players know almost instantaneously if those qualities are present. And they react accordingly. And in my experience human psychology doesn't really allow for a bad situation to be remedied with punishment. Two wrongs don't really make a right, so to speak. Paid games used to be able to get away with it because they already had players' money. In an unranked playlist in a free-to-play game I have to think it's a non-starter.

This is why, imo, tdm is a dead format in any game.

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First off,
AMEN BROTHER!

Yep, I tried TDM twice on PS4 and already decided never again. At least with Arenas there was a chance to turn it around because of the distinct rounds and the fact one team could not hold best area and keep the snowball rolling.

All the issues I emphasized above in your quote boil down to my Mantra for Free to Play games - "Any Free to Play Online game that does not consider the below average casual player will eventually die to population issues."

These matchmaking issues are made worse by the population issues. Casual players feel like they can't get matches fair to their skills. They feel like they can't improve. They will not treat this game like a job, and they will not grind to "git gud", they will instead quit and go on to other games that they feel respect their time. That leaves in essence 4 player types that remain (regardless of game) -

1. the Day 1 No Lifers (these people have been here since day one, play it like a job, and so while they might not be "type 2" they are in the top 20% of players by skill)
2. Pro-Streamers (these are the people that get paid to stream this game. They are usually in the top 5-10% of players usually by raw talent)
3. The Try-Hards (these are the people that WANT to be type 1 or 2, but have not made peace with the fact they will never be that good. These are the ones that are 'Hot Drop Harrys' because they think only by that insufferable PAIN will they improve. They are wrong. These are also the ones that put the most blame outside themselves, with aim-assist, or cheats, or lag, or matchmaking. And only on Matchmaking could they be partially right... see below... )
4. The Clueless Newbies (these are the ones saw the media hype for a new season or got talked into by their friends that are types 1 to 3. They load in, they get some practice on the firing range, they try the game, and get DESTROYED utterly. If they don't leave within a month, they most often molt into Type 3s, but a great many Type 4s will stick it out, season to season, because they got a lucky skin drop in the first 20 levels where you get an Apex Pack each time, and they are chasing that high again. These people are on average 50% of the population at any given time, but they CHURN rapidly.)

5. The Regular Casual (these players are the players that have basic skills in most games. They are not hardcore Type 1s or Type 2s, but they ARE better, if only vaguely, than Type 4s. They are also, due to their general interest in games to relax, the ones most common to give everything a try, at least for a bit. But they won’t grind it, they won’t really learn it, unless they feel it respects their time. These folks already have jobs, but also have what every game developer really wants – Disposable Income.)

What does this population type breakdown mean for Matchmaking? Well, it means that at any given time, there is a majority of Type 4's loading into matches with Type 1-3s. When on the same team as a Type 1 or 2, the type 4s don't even know HOW or WHY they got carried, they just know they made it to 3rd place or higher, MAYBE manged to do some damage, while their Type 1 or 2 leader ran the lobby with 10+ kills. This win feels empty, and will be made to feel even worse with their next few matches where they die in 2 minutes or less.

However, most of the time, those Type 4s will end up loading into matches with Type 3s. Those type 3s will hot drop the 'Streamer Areas', verbally abuse the Type 4 for not knowing how to solo the streamer building, BE FOOD FOR THE TYPE 1 and 2 players, then leave for the next match before their banner expires. Meanwhile, the left alone type 4s might find each other, have a very non-productive and confusing firefight, only to get killed by the remaining Type 1-3s in the area drawn by the gunfire.

So, the type 4s continue to Churn, and reduce in population slowly as less new ones come in to replace them over the season. The population bands of types 1 and 2 remain the same, but types 3 and 4 get smaller, increasing the number of times they are quickly wiped out to types 1 and 2. This increases the churn of type 4, and slowly starts to churn type 3. The problem continues to get worse.

Eventually, bored with either easy kills, or having to work too hard against their own types, the types 1 and 2 start to churn, and that is when the game truly starts to die.

Without Type 5 - The Regular Casual, no free to play model can last beyond when this churn starts. The only Free to Play game I have ever seen master balancing the desires of all 5 types against each other, and convert most of them to paying players, is Guild Wars 2. Because it has PvE and the mass battles of WvW for the casual players.

Because Apex insists on PvP only modes, they have no way around this. All they can do is race to milk it as much as they can before the Churn rate is too high. And, oh look, they just released an heirloom recolor...

Funny that.