Pack luck isn’t rigged—it’s just probability. Like the lottery or gambling, the odds are stacked against you. Most guides lay out the expected minimums—usually 5- or 10-shard pulls, depending on the event. Anything better is borderline miraculous.
WRT: “The probability of a 107 OVR is 12%, so I should get one every 8 pulls.” That’s not how probability works for store items. You have a 12% chance each time you open a pack. It doesn’t stack or guarantee anything—even after 100 tries, each pull is still just a 12% shot.
Some events, I end up pulling the same cards over and over. Other times, I get every card from the pool—but it’s almost always the lowest OVR one. There might be some conditional logic to nudge players into getting that “first” card in the range, but overall, the system’s clearly built to hand out the lowest-tier pulls (where displayed probabilities literally tell you why you wont get a higher card most of the time).
One guy on our Discord opened nothing but 103s during almost the entire Aqua/Inferno event—then suddenly pulled 109 R9. Now in the current event? He’s getting 104s like clockwork. We keep joking he used up all his luck for the year. Hahah
So yeah, if you land a top-tier card, grab a lottery ticket—you’re clearly on fire.
And as for streamers—it’s showbiz. They mostly pour money into the game, so their “luck” is just high-odds brute force. It’s not magic—it’s math, and marketing. The more subscribers and views they have, the more they typically make....