Mystery Prize

i've found its more like 1 blueprint per 4 races, but if you get a blueprint in the first race in the morning abd dont do the remaining two races when the replay events refresh in the afternoon you'll race all three races and not get a blueprint, so if you've got the fuel you're better off always doing all three races

I also noticed this behavior of the Mystery Prize.

But I don't think this "system is unfair". I mean, it is cool to have two different systems... it would be more boring if we had only Car Series's System.

If you need some part or blue print, but you already got it in previous round (and you need more than one), you can still try to spend 30 GOLD (for additional FLIP) in order to try a chance of getting another one!   I am doing this all the time with a loot of desirable results  🙂

Agree with @richieluv76 - in the long run, you are getting about the same number of all possible prizes, except maybe VPs have a little lower frequency (but too high anyway :-( ). I believe I have never got VPs twice out of a serie of three races per event, while gotten other prizes twice sometimes (but never three times).

And when you get a BP in your first race and do not race the other two, you could expect * in your next session (not always, but often).

well picking out cards is purely based on luck but sometimes things had happened to me, like all the 3 cards were blueprints (i use 30 gold for the 2nd BP). Seems nobody is able to figure out the pattern. 

Assuming that mystery prize system is fair and there are four possible rewards (bp, cash, part and visual points) then you should get one bp every four races. I mean if you play, for example, 40 times you will have around 10 bps. It could be 9 bps or maybe 11 but it won't deviate too much. This is based on probability theory.

Having said that, FM could assign different weights to rewards. For example 33% to bp, 33% to parts and 17% each to cash and vp. So after 30 races you might end up with 10 BP, 10 parts, 5 cash and 5 vp. And currently it seems like I am getting less vp in boss races and 1 bp every 3rd race.

My suggestion is not to skip 2nd/3rd races. However the best way to figure out the answers is to follow both approaches (play all three vs skip 2nd/3rd) one by one for certain number of races (at least 30) and note down the rewards. See how many bps per race you get from either approach.

Well this topic is very diffuse, some players claim that it's not lucky at all and is predetermined, another claim (me included) it's lucky, several times happened that I got 2 battery or 2 gasket or 2 relay or 2 bearing, every single day I'm farming all of these 4 materials, I race all the races possibles.

I noticed that mostly every 3 races you get 1 of the desired prize, but sometimes you don't get it and sometimes you get 2, so for me works like that, racing all the races. BTW last days I'm getting lucky with battery, now I have 12 and believe me that's really strange, this is the first time that I'm be able to have them in stock because I'm always farming them.

Happy racing!!

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@peniastall wrote:

Well this topic is very diffuse, some players claim that it's not lucky at all and is predetermined, another claim (me included) it's lucky, several times happened that I got 2 battery or 2 gasket or 2 relay or 2 bearing, every single day I'm farming all of these 4 materials, I race all the races possibles.

I noticed that mostly every 3 races you get 1 of the desired prize, but sometimes you don't get it and sometimes you get 2, so for me works like that, racing all the races. BTW last days I'm getting lucky with battery, now I have 12 and believe me that's really strange, this is the first time that I'm be able to have them in stock because I'm always farming them.

Happy racing!!

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It is called cognitive bias - basically that you experience what you are expecting, neglecting all the negatives 🙂

You are free to make your own experiments/statistics, but you need to include/record all cases, not just the ones you remember. I have already started that in races for bearing, hose, battery and CCX blueprints, will post it later, once gathering some data.

My experience so far:

- prizes are not in a strict order, some randomization does occur

- it is heavily moderated, which means most extreme cases will not happen.

What I have experienced:

- two wanted prizes (BP, material needed) out of three replays

- not a single wanted prize out of three replays

What I have NEVER experienced (maybe not impossible to reach, only improbable):

- getting THREE wanted prizes out of three replays

- getting VPs twice in three replays

- having all three slots filled with VPs

There is definitely no luck involved in the Mystery prizes i feel. we need to find a pattern..Maybe we can all post the way we pick the cards(our patterns) and see whose is the best. Let's just assume for this that it's not a predefined prize that we get.

1. By default i pick first card(left most) most of the time- Good especially so far on the first boss for getting 15k.

2. When two cards are same - Picking the middle card. Hits the one most of the time.

3. Boss 2 - Middle card to get 15k.

4. All different prizes - Picking the one that flipped showing the card i wanted.

@icearmor - it is generally believed there is no point in contemplating which card you choose, as what you get is already predefined, no matter which card you turn. When you say that picking the middle card gets you the prize you wanted most of the time, it is probably because it gets you that prize more often than not - try to make a statistics and you should find you get what you want in about two cases out of three (which is of course the same for the left and right card as well).

As Heretikjirka says, the prize is predetermined by the system once the cards flip, so it doesn't matter which card you pick, you will get whatever the system has decided based upon the statistical algorithm used. The 3 mystery cards create the illusion that you have a chance of choosing something different depending on which card you pick... but once the cards flip, regardless of which card you choose, you're going to get the same reward, left middle or right.

The system definitely doesn't use a purely random algorithm to determine which of the four mystery prizes you get. If it did, statistically (on 4 options e.g. BP, Cash, VP, Material) you should get 3 of the same prize in one run (being 3 consecutive replays), every 64 runs (i.e. every 32 days at 2 runs a day). To get 3 BP's in the same run would happen every 256 runs as that adds another factorial into the equation. Since no-one has ever recorded having 3 of the same prize in one run, the system's algorithm prevents this from happening based upon previous prizes claimed in the same run.

My system is simple and it works for me. If I'm racing for BP, as soon as I get the BP I stop and move on to boss replays for cash, or I target the material I want. Yes, on the odd occasion even though it's possible to get 2 BP in a 3 race run, it doesn't happen often enough to warrant the fuel spend.

I never use gold to flip a mystery card, even if I know it has a BP, because I get a lot more value out of 30 gold by refilling my tank than scoring one BP or material.