Re: 6 (?) weeks and just 1 key !
I'm now up to 3 keys from 7 events. Yaaaay, 43% drop rate. Hopefully I'll get the last key in the 8th event next week, because I'll probably be passing on the crappy boss hunt event 2 weeks after that.
Forum Discussion
9 Replies
The main problem here is that the key drops are based on statistical probability and The Law of Large Numbers simply doesn't guarantee anything at all at a smaller number of finite sets. A 75% drop rate sounds really great on it's face but statistically speaking you will only see that underlying 75% drop over huge sample sizes- the closer you get to an infinite number of opened chests the more that 75% drop rate will show itself but at a mere 8 events there are undoubtedly a lot of players still waiting to complete their set of Keys.
The drop is definitely better than 50/50 but since each opened chest doesn't effect the base chance there is still the likelihood that some players are going to be waiting a very long time. It's likely that the developers fell victim to the Gamblers Fallacy when setting the percentage and simply assumed that all Players would complete the Trials within a couple of weeks of each other but that's not the most likely outcome.
You might not like this but I'm at a 100% drop rate of 1:1, but I couldn't agree more.
They did listen to the community and increase the rainbow star rewards, you might just be a minority of facing odds like that though, falling into 25% six cycles in a row is actually 0.00244%, reminds me of the luck I've had in almost every other game.
Empathy and sympathy isn't going to work, others telling you how lucky they are is like rubbing salt into your wounds too. Mate, if it's any help to you at all I've stopped ranking any character ever since I hit 1337 rank, which means there's many quests I don't do, can't do because it'll level me, that will include the new characters also. I won't play as Goatmiester 3000 even when I do get him. ☹️
I'm at 2 keys now, so the random number generator must be swinging back my way!
Zaheen1337 wrote:
You might not like this but I'm at a 100% drop rate of 1:1, but I couldn't agree more.
They did listen to the community and increase the rainbow star rewards, you might just be a minority of facing odds like that though, falling into 25% six cycles in a row is actually 0.00244%, reminds me of the luck I've had in almost every other game.
I think the odds of 1 key in 6 are 0.07% (0.75 * 0.25^5), which is 1 in 1365. I don't know what the weekly active user count in the game, though I'd guess it's a few thousand, so there could be several people with 1 key from 6. And anyone at PopCap could have easily foreseen this back when they implemented it.
The calc was because I thought someone was 6 chests dry. Looking at the thread title, looks like I misread / misunderstood.
Well I have two keys after two chests, red and yellow 🙂
Spoke too soon. I'm still at 2 keys. RND is not my friend. I'm looking at 29% key to chest opening. Maybe next week.
I got my 4th key after 8 events. Beat all the bosses. Just the two big chests to open now, but I couldn't be bothered spending hours grinding out yet more rainbow stairs. I already had to get 400 just to reach this point. I banked 30 more, and will get the last 120 in the next non-boss event if it's somewhat enjoyable.
@Scruffy_McGuffy wrote:
I got my 4th key after 8 events. Beat all the bosses. Just the two big chests to open now, but I couldn't be bothered spending hours grinding out yet more rainbow stairs. I already had to get 400 just to reach this point. I banked 30 more, and will get the last 120 in the next non-boss event if it's somewhat enjoyable.
I've found CvD to be pretty quick for grinding rainbow stars.
@pandareno1999 wrote:
I've found CvD to be pretty quick for grinding rainbow stars.Yeah, it's the fastest. That last weekend I got 50 in CvD to get my final key, then another 30, and I wouldn't have had time to get the final 120 (total 150 needed to open the two chests with the characters). I might have had more time if I hadn't been kept waiting 4 more events than other players, but with Battlefield 1 and other games out, I'd rather be there.
