About these bonus drops...
I'm guessing they don't have a 30% drop rate like a regular hard node? 8 runs and zero bonus shards.... The chances of that are 0.019% or 0.00019 (70% chance of not getting one, 24 times) Come o...
Forum Discussion
"Mahbrethir;c-1541104" wrote:
AHAHAH no.
You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.
These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.
A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.
As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.
Your last paragraph shows you may not understand how statistics works. To calculate P(x) you would need to know if all rewards are dependent or independent. It's a different formula depending ... just saying.
