Two thoughts:
First: Our guild was being mismatched against teams 30-40 mil higher than us for the past 10 wars (we are around 90 and were facing 130). We have one guy with 3 mil GP who was our leader who left to get Traya. This time the other team is only 7-8mil above us. I think your top guy heavily dictates how hard of an opponent you get based on your top squad's GP.
Second: And some of the better guilds who are a lot higher will sit their players to reduce their active GP. (Imagine UK Basketball or Alabama Football sitting a starter or two to play the South Western School for Underwater Basketweaving. They know they will get the win because of the opponent being weaker than themselves.)