I would suggest, instead of trying to minimize his points on offense, why not trying to maximize yours? What I mean is, it is true, you will probably not be able to beat his fleet if he puts Negotiator or MF on defense, but in case he keep them for offense (lots of people likes to go strong on offense) and puts Chimaera on defense, you will have a fighting chance. The more points you make, the more promotion you might be able to achieve, independently on your adversary score. So I would keep a strong fleet for offence and an ok fleet for defense.
Maybe geos on defense with Tarkin and Chimaere on offense (to deal with Hound's tooth) with kylo, vader and tie? or viceversa, but I would keep the Chimaera for offense to kill the hound's tooth