Drop rates, loss runs and transparency
None of what follows is new, but I hope it encourages EA to have a think about how they handle artificially stochastic functions in the game, and gives some of you a bit more info about how to gain d...
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... and the number of wins in a row.
Maximum recorded win runs and 95% confidence interval
Note: Wins runs are the total number of wins in a row before a loss occurs.
Lower and upper bound for the maximum expected run are generated using a Monte Carlo simulation and the estimated binomial probability (yes, yes there's an analytical way to do it but this is one line of code and quite reliable).
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variable Battle Number of win runs Lower bound Maximum recorded win run length Upper bound
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1 Lando Calrissian shard Cantina Battle 1E 26 2 3 7
2 Lando Calrissian shard Cantina Battle 5F 5 0 3 7
3 Ability material MkI Cantina Battle 1E 37 1 1 3
4 Ability material MkI Cantina Battle 4B 87 2 4 5
5 Ability material MkI Cantina Battle 4D 152 3 3 7
6 Ability material MkI Cantina Battle 5F 7 0 2 4
7 Ability material MkII Cantina Battle 1E 40 0 1 2
8 Ability material MkII Cantina Battle 4B 86 2 2 5
9 Ability material MkII Cantina Battle 4D 182 2 4 4
10 Ability material MkII Cantina Battle 5F 9 0 1 2
11 Ability material MkIII Cantina Battle 1E 39 0 1 2
12 Ability material MkIII Cantina Battle 4B 99 1 3 3
13 Ability material MkIII Cantina Battle 4D 204 1 1 2
14 Ability material MkIII Cantina Battle 5F 9 0 1 2
15 Sim ticket Cantina Battle 1E 38 1 1 3
16 Sim ticket Cantina Battle 4B 98 1 1 3
17 Sim ticket Cantina Battle 4D 194 1 1 3
18 Sim ticket Cantina Battle 5F 9 0 1 2
19 Sim ticket Dark side 1B Hard 14 0 1 4
20 Sim ticket Dark side 3E Hard 10 0 1 3
21 Sim ticket Dark side 4A normal 19 0 2 3
22 Sim ticket Dark side 4C Hard 20 0 1 2
23 Sim ticket Dark side 7E normal 77 1 1 3
24 Sim ticket Dark side 8B normal 79 1 1 2
25 Sim ticket Dark side 8C normal 67 1 2 3
26 Sim ticket Light side 3A Hard 8 0 0 2
27 Sim ticket Light side 4J normal 12 0 1 3
28 Sim ticket Light side 7D normal 184 1 2 3
29 Sim ticket Light side 8G normal 92 1 1 3
30 TIE Fighter pilot shard Cantina Battle 4B 75 2 3 6
31 Genosian Spy shard Cantina Battle 4D 130 3 6 9
32 Mk5 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype Light side 4J normal 6 1 5 9
33 Mk1 Arakyd Droid Caller Light side 4J normal 7 1 2 8
34 Mk3 Czerka Stun Cuffs Salvage Dark side 8C normal 57 1 3 5
35 Mk3 Czerka Stun Cuffs Salvage Light side 7D normal 160 2 4 5
36 Mk3 Czerka Stun Cuffs Salvage Light side 8G normal 85 1 2 4
37 Mk4 Nubian Security Scanner Protype Salvage Light side 7D normal 132 3 4 8
38 Mk1 Sorosuub Keypad Light side 7D normal 96 5 6 12
39 Mk8 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype Salvage Light side 5D Hard 7 0 1 4
40 Mk2 Arakyd Droid Caller Dark side 8C normal 36 3 7 10
41 Mk4 BioTech Implant Prototype Dark side 4C Hard 11 1 2 8
42 Mk3 BlasTech Weapon Mod Light side 5D Hard 5 0 2 7
43 Mk7 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype Salvage Dark side 4C Hard 11 1 3 8
44 Mk7 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype Salvage Light side 8G normal 58 3 8 8
45 Mk1 Merr-Sonn Shield Generator Light side 8G normal 57 3 5 8
46 Mk1 Zaltin Bacta Gel Prototype Salvage Dark side 4A normal 16 1 3 4
47 Mk3 BioTech Implant Dark side 4A normal 8 2 2 13
48 Mk5 A/KT Stun Gun Prototype Salvage Dark side 7E normal 66 1 3 4
49 Mk5 A/KT Stun Gun Prototype Salvage Dark side 8B normal 67 1 3 4
50 Mk3 Chiewab Hypo Syringe Prototype Salvage Dark side 7E normal 55 2 5 7
51 Mk2 SoroSuub Keypad Prototype Dark side 7E normal 40 3 5 10
52 Mk7 BAW Armor Mod Prototype Salvage Dark side 4C Hard 9 1 5 10
53 Mk7 BAW Armor Mod Prototype Salvage Dark side 8B normal 57 2 3 6
54 Mk4 Loronar Power Cell Prototype Dark side 8B normal 49 3 4 8
55 Mk1 Carbanti Sensor Array Prototype Dark side 8C normal 52 2 2 6
56 Mk4 BAW Armor Mod Salvage Dark side 3E Hard 11 0 1 2
57 Mk4 BAW Armor Mod Salvage Light side 3A Hard 6 0 1 5
58 Mk1 BlasTech Weapon Mod Light side 3A Hard 3 0 4 11
59 Mk2 TaggeCo Holo Lens Dark side 1B Hard 11 1 2 6
60 Mk2 TaggeCo Holo Lens Dark side 3E Hard 5 1 3 9
61 Mk2 TaggeCo Holo Lens Light side 3A Hard 3 0 3 11
62 Ahsoka Tano shard Dark side 4C Hard 11 1 3 8
63 Ahsoka Tano shard Light side 5D Hard 8 0 1 3
64 Mk5 Loronar Power Cell Salvage Light side 5D Hard 5 0 2 7
65 Mk3 Neuro-Saav Electrobinoculars Light side 5D Hard 6 0 2 5
66 Clone sergeant phase 1 shard Dark side 1B Hard 12 1 4 5
67 Clone sergeant phase 1 shard Dark side 3E Hard 5 1 3 9
68 Mk3 Loronar Power Cell Dark side 1B Hard 7 1 4 11
69 Mk2 BlasTech Weapon Mod Dark side 1B Hard 12 1 4 5
70 Mk5 TaggeCo Holo Lens Prototype Salvage Dark side 3E Hard 11 0 1 2
71 Mk1 TaggeCo Holo Lens Dark side 4C Hard 16 1 2 4
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